Where’s It Heading
Yesterday doesn’t mean as much as it used to. Recalling the days once described as yesterday could mean a year ago or two or a decade ago or two. Not any more since technology is developing at warp speed so what held true Tuesday may be obsolete by Wednesday.
The games we wager our money on are not the games of “yesterday” when outcomes were truer to form. The fields and courts are still the same dimensions as always but the rules and styles of play on them have been tinkered with and altered.
Perform enhancing drugs can be disguised. No way are all the super muscled athletes the product of gene pools or hard workouts. The record books should use asterics beside some of the entries regardless of the assurances of the various leagues and governing body’s that their athletes are pure.
Major League Baseball in an effort to add more offense i.e. runs to their game, have created another dead ball live ball controversy. We know the drill, the League just can’t figure out how they are on an pace to destroy the home run record by 400 this season. That’s four hundred but “trust us the ball is the same”.
The NFL has turned their game into a pitch and catch, crowd pleasing (?) extravaganza. Can’t touch a QB and defensive backs can’t use all their skills. Just throw the damn thing and let a receiver catch it. After reaching the end zone the league is now promoting end zone dances. They’ve already announced and started promoting Brittany Spears as the half time show of Super Bowl L1. Nothing wrong with Brittany Spears, she’s awesome, but the football game is becoming the backup act.
The NBA has altered their game the most. The NBA has evolved, purposely I might add, into nothing more than first guy past mid court shoots a three pointer or maybe two passes then a lob into an aircraft carrier who posts up another aircraft carrier then shoots. If he happens to make it (which he’s paid to do) he might grab his jersey, pound his chest and scream. The league loves it and so must the fans and TV viewers.
I predict, in the not too distant future, we’ll be able to don Virtual Reality head sets in our seats at the game and view the action from any angle. That’ll be awesome. Just as awesome would be the ability to join a money pool when purchasing your ticket and receiving a mobile device to bet on the game in progress. That’s a long shot but it’s the natural progression of the modern game and technology.
Talk about technology. eSports has plugged their product into the major sports outlets. eSports has pre game press conferences, they promote how they “train” and the status of their teams heads. They have their own super stars. There are eSports mini stadiums so the fan base, mostly millenials, can mimic the main stream sports experience if our current big time sports don’t appeal to them.
Hold on to your hats boys and girls, it’s changing fast. Some for the best and some not so.
Good Luck With That
The available stats for handicapping baseball just keep coming. They’re getting as silly as most of the prop bets offered in LV sportsbooks. If you’re interested you can find the “tilts” or the angle of break of a particular pitchers slider or his “spin rate” of pitches. Will a batters “launch angle” of his swing help you pick a winner? What about the velocities of balls coming off individual batters.
The infield measurements are uniform. Distance between bases, pitcher’s mound to home plate, height of mound and dirt circle all the same. Batters boxes, home plates, bases all the same.
That’s where it ends. Football fields and basketball courts are uniform. Not so with baseball. Foul ball areas and fences vary from field to field and the configuration of those areas change from venue to venue. No two fields are the same.
It’s easy to get wind velocity and direction as well as the sun and shadows. All this info, no matter how deep you go into stats, will be useless after a few bad calls which we can’t predict or handicap. We know the hitters parks and the under parks. We know the different home plate umpires strike zones but he can still be off a couple pitches and that’s all it takes to switch a winner to a loser. We might have handicapped all the relevant info correctly but how do we make up for bad calls around the bases? Despite all this baseball remains the easiest to beat over a season provided we use good money management.
Sportsbook management has been crying especially about the NFL. Week after week they get their lunch eaten. It’s awful hard to lose on the NFL using good old fashioned bookmaking sense.
Sports handicapping is going the way of flip phones and telephones. I don’t think you’ll see many bettors studying two opponents and all the relevant stats and information available on them. Football and basketball, especially football, are covertly becoming studio games. No need to use your brain or get off the couch, just tune into the never ending pre game shows and expert after expert will break the game down for you. Every network tries to outdo the competition by lining up their very own experts and dazzle their viewers with giddy panel arguments and showmanship.
Next time you see a sports bettor doing his own work in a sportsbook then make a wager on his own opinion and skills buy him a drink. Most wagers now days are decided by provincial pride or a talking head on TV. No need to waste your gray matter when a 15 watt ex player can make the decision for you.
What makes a grown man or woman attach themselves to and live through a bunch of players on a particular team who don’t give a rats behind about them. Wasn’t always like that. In the glory days of sports betting we had two way action till corporate thinking took control of bookmaking. They chased so called wiseguys who bet their own opinions and provided two way action. Now after they chased any chance of buy back i.e. two way action the public lines up, all in sync, and mindlessly bet the same side. You know the routine: dog & under, favorite & over.
** Moving Numbers
It's hard to imagine a sportsbook losing on the NFL over a whole season but from the comments coming from sportsbook managers it sounds like they managed to do just that. The Super Bowl was a miracle winner for most sportsbooks but it didn't get them out for the year.
What to do next season or more relevant what not to do. Forget the Las Vegas sportsbook concept that they have to beat the player. Let the players alone and they'll beat themselves. Get the best line you can and if you have an opinion put it in your opening number then after that no more "I like team bla, bla" or "it's going up or it's going down" as too many sportsbook managers are quoted. The most successful bookmakers back East where I broke in don't know squat about the teams and don't want to know. 11 is bigger than 10, the game is in the BMs favor.
Set your limits where you can get two way action. Don’t take $5k all week then take $100k on a single bet. Looks nice in the papers but it’s dumb. Move numbers according to your action. It's wise to get to the right number quick then when they begin to take it back move slowly. Example: They lay 6, 6.5, 7,8, Then they begin taking it back. They take 8 so move slowly like 8, 7.5, 7.
Don't overreact on injuries or rumors after you've dealt the game. I'm not talking about injuries that are built into your opening number but late injuries and rumors. Most teams can overcome an injury or two for a game. Some injured teams will even play at a higher level for a game. If Brady's out for a game they can over come it but not for a whole season. Let the bettors overreact and you'll pick them up with a blotter.
A successful BM knows it's the same $20 bill you pass back and forth with your players only the bookmaker has it for 20 days a month and the players have it only 10. I guess old BMs like me are giving way to a different mindset in LV.
** (from an earlier column here but still relevant)
The NFL
In poker good players look for tells. The NFL has telegraphed a clue into the hand they hold and how they intend to play it. They once had a pat hand but no more it seems. Viewership is down and sinking further. There are various reasons and theories for this slide but instead of facing them head on the league chooses to ignore them. So they tinker around the edges of their game instead of playing to their strength which is still football. Did they streamline the annoying review process? Naw. We're still stuck with horrible, and getting worse, bad refereeing. Bad beats are now part of the game because some holding and pass interference calls are bogus or not called when they are evident. Good luck figuring them in your handicapping. Momentum and a reasonable flow to the game are secondary to truck and beer commercials. After a TD is scored we break for a barrage of them. Then it’s back for the ensuing kickoff then before a play is run another barrage of commercials. Advertising is necessary or we wouldn't see sports on TV, that's a given but at least try going to breaks when they don't interfere with the flow of the game.
No gambling ads are allowed but the NFL endorses fantasy football. No Las Vegas advertising is permitted by the league but they OKd the Raiders move to Las Vegas. It’ll be a monumental undertaking covering up the players shenanigans, home team and visitors, as they partake in the offerings. The League has a better chance of running around in the shower without getting wet. Starting this season we will be treated to ads for hard liquor. The league is remaining self righteous though since no more than two in a quarter are allowed and they must include a politically correct responsibility message. No condom ads are allowed but it's OK to advertise Viagra or other ED aids. No Red Bull ads allowed but booze is fine. Go figure.
The most glaring tell is the promotion of end zone celebrations. Not only can we see players celebrate a tackle, sack, pass breakup, catch etc. after a routine play we can watch comedy routines in the end zone with NFL blessings as of this season. Will they be choreographed and rehearsed during practice or when? Will they be available on video? Are they OK even if you're getting killed on the scoreboard? Of course they will and will be promoted by the league as they get further and further away from what brung them to the dance. Football.
Camaraderie
The dictionary defines camaraderie as brotherhood or friendship, especially united by a common cause, and especially in literal or figurative combat / mutual trust and friendship among people who spend a lot of time together.
That’s mostly missing from the betting scene in Las Vegas today. The camaraderie among bettors has been eliminated by the vastness and amenities of today’s race & sportsbooks. They have by design been blended into the hotels casino, restaurants and attractions. The books for the most part are located in huge cavernous areas close to hundreds of thousands of square feet of gambling tables and entertainment.
In fact the books are another form of entertainment for a good portion of the people occupying a seat in them. I purposely used the word people and didn’t use the words player or bettor. You can sit comfortably in the book or close by while eating. You can be entertained by huge TV displays that carry most any game you’re interested in. The odds boards may be full of mind teasing propositions to ponder. You might even score a drink if the cocktail waitress thinks you’re george. You don’t have to be a player to enjoy today’s books.
Before hotels took over race & sportsbooks there was a common thread we all shared. It’s now gone along with all the store front books and hole in the wall betting counters first located casinos. That common thread of making a bet and expecting a payoff is missing. Those rooms were small compared with the mega books today. One TV or two at the most. No food or drinks or cocktail waitresses. People didn’t go there for the amenities or to be entertained. We shared a common purpose and that was we were all race or sports bettors or both.
Those joints were alive with characters and stories of good and bad beats. Some were even true. Tuesday was settle up day around town for those of us who still had money or were owed. If you came up lame for the week we’ll carry your figure over till you locate a fresh bankroll. Those books, especially Churchill, were like banks. I owe you, you owe him so I’ll pay him and you and I are square. Camaraderie.
Even The Stardust was in that old time category in spite of being a big book in a Strip hotel. It was the center of the locals Las Vegas betting market. It was a serious betting establishment full of like minded bettors. Camaraderie. Those haunts are gone, never to return to Las Vegas. Gone with them are the characters and events humorous and not so. They’re only memories but we can yearn for the camaraderie that was so thick in them.
One of my favorite sayings applies here: “Times change, change with them or get out of the way”. What hasn’t changed is 11 is still bigger than 10 and you give the bookmaker your money then try to win it back.
Yesterday doesn’t mean as much as it used to. Recalling the days once described as yesterday could mean a year ago or two or a decade ago or two. Not any more since technology is developing at warp speed so what held true Tuesday may be obsolete by Wednesday.
The games we wager our money on are not the games of “yesterday” when outcomes were truer to form. The fields and courts are still the same dimensions as always but the rules and styles of play on them have been tinkered with and altered.
Perform enhancing drugs can be disguised. No way are all the super muscled athletes the product of gene pools or hard workouts. The record books should use asterics beside some of the entries regardless of the assurances of the various leagues and governing body’s that their athletes are pure.
Major League Baseball in an effort to add more offense i.e. runs to their game, have created another dead ball live ball controversy. We know the drill, the League just can’t figure out how they are on an pace to destroy the home run record by 400 this season. That’s four hundred but “trust us the ball is the same”.
The NFL has turned their game into a pitch and catch, crowd pleasing (?) extravaganza. Can’t touch a QB and defensive backs can’t use all their skills. Just throw the damn thing and let a receiver catch it. After reaching the end zone the league is now promoting end zone dances. They’ve already announced and started promoting Brittany Spears as the half time show of Super Bowl L1. Nothing wrong with Brittany Spears, she’s awesome, but the football game is becoming the backup act.
The NBA has altered their game the most. The NBA has evolved, purposely I might add, into nothing more than first guy past mid court shoots a three pointer or maybe two passes then a lob into an aircraft carrier who posts up another aircraft carrier then shoots. If he happens to make it (which he’s paid to do) he might grab his jersey, pound his chest and scream. The league loves it and so must the fans and TV viewers.
I predict, in the not too distant future, we’ll be able to don Virtual Reality head sets in our seats at the game and view the action from any angle. That’ll be awesome. Just as awesome would be the ability to join a money pool when purchasing your ticket and receiving a mobile device to bet on the game in progress. That’s a long shot but it’s the natural progression of the modern game and technology.
Talk about technology. eSports has plugged their product into the major sports outlets. eSports has pre game press conferences, they promote how they “train” and the status of their teams heads. They have their own super stars. There are eSports mini stadiums so the fan base, mostly millenials, can mimic the main stream sports experience if our current big time sports don’t appeal to them.
Hold on to your hats boys and girls, it’s changing fast. Some for the best and some not so.
Good Luck With That
The available stats for handicapping baseball just keep coming. They’re getting as silly as most of the prop bets offered in LV sportsbooks. If you’re interested you can find the “tilts” or the angle of break of a particular pitchers slider or his “spin rate” of pitches. Will a batters “launch angle” of his swing help you pick a winner? What about the velocities of balls coming off individual batters.
The infield measurements are uniform. Distance between bases, pitcher’s mound to home plate, height of mound and dirt circle all the same. Batters boxes, home plates, bases all the same.
That’s where it ends. Football fields and basketball courts are uniform. Not so with baseball. Foul ball areas and fences vary from field to field and the configuration of those areas change from venue to venue. No two fields are the same.
It’s easy to get wind velocity and direction as well as the sun and shadows. All this info, no matter how deep you go into stats, will be useless after a few bad calls which we can’t predict or handicap. We know the hitters parks and the under parks. We know the different home plate umpires strike zones but he can still be off a couple pitches and that’s all it takes to switch a winner to a loser. We might have handicapped all the relevant info correctly but how do we make up for bad calls around the bases? Despite all this baseball remains the easiest to beat over a season provided we use good money management.
Sportsbook management has been crying especially about the NFL. Week after week they get their lunch eaten. It’s awful hard to lose on the NFL using good old fashioned bookmaking sense.
Sports handicapping is going the way of flip phones and telephones. I don’t think you’ll see many bettors studying two opponents and all the relevant stats and information available on them. Football and basketball, especially football, are covertly becoming studio games. No need to use your brain or get off the couch, just tune into the never ending pre game shows and expert after expert will break the game down for you. Every network tries to outdo the competition by lining up their very own experts and dazzle their viewers with giddy panel arguments and showmanship.
Next time you see a sports bettor doing his own work in a sportsbook then make a wager on his own opinion and skills buy him a drink. Most wagers now days are decided by provincial pride or a talking head on TV. No need to waste your gray matter when a 15 watt ex player can make the decision for you.
What makes a grown man or woman attach themselves to and live through a bunch of players on a particular team who don’t give a rats behind about them. Wasn’t always like that. In the glory days of sports betting we had two way action till corporate thinking took control of bookmaking. They chased so called wiseguys who bet their own opinions and provided two way action. Now after they chased any chance of buy back i.e. two way action the public lines up, all in sync, and mindlessly bet the same side. You know the routine: dog & under, favorite & over.
** Moving Numbers
It's hard to imagine a sportsbook losing on the NFL over a whole season but from the comments coming from sportsbook managers it sounds like they managed to do just that. The Super Bowl was a miracle winner for most sportsbooks but it didn't get them out for the year.
What to do next season or more relevant what not to do. Forget the Las Vegas sportsbook concept that they have to beat the player. Let the players alone and they'll beat themselves. Get the best line you can and if you have an opinion put it in your opening number then after that no more "I like team bla, bla" or "it's going up or it's going down" as too many sportsbook managers are quoted. The most successful bookmakers back East where I broke in don't know squat about the teams and don't want to know. 11 is bigger than 10, the game is in the BMs favor.
Set your limits where you can get two way action. Don’t take $5k all week then take $100k on a single bet. Looks nice in the papers but it’s dumb. Move numbers according to your action. It's wise to get to the right number quick then when they begin to take it back move slowly. Example: They lay 6, 6.5, 7,8, Then they begin taking it back. They take 8 so move slowly like 8, 7.5, 7.
Don't overreact on injuries or rumors after you've dealt the game. I'm not talking about injuries that are built into your opening number but late injuries and rumors. Most teams can overcome an injury or two for a game. Some injured teams will even play at a higher level for a game. If Brady's out for a game they can over come it but not for a whole season. Let the bettors overreact and you'll pick them up with a blotter.
A successful BM knows it's the same $20 bill you pass back and forth with your players only the bookmaker has it for 20 days a month and the players have it only 10. I guess old BMs like me are giving way to a different mindset in LV.
** (from an earlier column here but still relevant)
The NFL
In poker good players look for tells. The NFL has telegraphed a clue into the hand they hold and how they intend to play it. They once had a pat hand but no more it seems. Viewership is down and sinking further. There are various reasons and theories for this slide but instead of facing them head on the league chooses to ignore them. So they tinker around the edges of their game instead of playing to their strength which is still football. Did they streamline the annoying review process? Naw. We're still stuck with horrible, and getting worse, bad refereeing. Bad beats are now part of the game because some holding and pass interference calls are bogus or not called when they are evident. Good luck figuring them in your handicapping. Momentum and a reasonable flow to the game are secondary to truck and beer commercials. After a TD is scored we break for a barrage of them. Then it’s back for the ensuing kickoff then before a play is run another barrage of commercials. Advertising is necessary or we wouldn't see sports on TV, that's a given but at least try going to breaks when they don't interfere with the flow of the game.
No gambling ads are allowed but the NFL endorses fantasy football. No Las Vegas advertising is permitted by the league but they OKd the Raiders move to Las Vegas. It’ll be a monumental undertaking covering up the players shenanigans, home team and visitors, as they partake in the offerings. The League has a better chance of running around in the shower without getting wet. Starting this season we will be treated to ads for hard liquor. The league is remaining self righteous though since no more than two in a quarter are allowed and they must include a politically correct responsibility message. No condom ads are allowed but it's OK to advertise Viagra or other ED aids. No Red Bull ads allowed but booze is fine. Go figure.
The most glaring tell is the promotion of end zone celebrations. Not only can we see players celebrate a tackle, sack, pass breakup, catch etc. after a routine play we can watch comedy routines in the end zone with NFL blessings as of this season. Will they be choreographed and rehearsed during practice or when? Will they be available on video? Are they OK even if you're getting killed on the scoreboard? Of course they will and will be promoted by the league as they get further and further away from what brung them to the dance. Football.
Camaraderie
The dictionary defines camaraderie as brotherhood or friendship, especially united by a common cause, and especially in literal or figurative combat / mutual trust and friendship among people who spend a lot of time together.
That’s mostly missing from the betting scene in Las Vegas today. The camaraderie among bettors has been eliminated by the vastness and amenities of today’s race & sportsbooks. They have by design been blended into the hotels casino, restaurants and attractions. The books for the most part are located in huge cavernous areas close to hundreds of thousands of square feet of gambling tables and entertainment.
In fact the books are another form of entertainment for a good portion of the people occupying a seat in them. I purposely used the word people and didn’t use the words player or bettor. You can sit comfortably in the book or close by while eating. You can be entertained by huge TV displays that carry most any game you’re interested in. The odds boards may be full of mind teasing propositions to ponder. You might even score a drink if the cocktail waitress thinks you’re george. You don’t have to be a player to enjoy today’s books.
Before hotels took over race & sportsbooks there was a common thread we all shared. It’s now gone along with all the store front books and hole in the wall betting counters first located casinos. That common thread of making a bet and expecting a payoff is missing. Those rooms were small compared with the mega books today. One TV or two at the most. No food or drinks or cocktail waitresses. People didn’t go there for the amenities or to be entertained. We shared a common purpose and that was we were all race or sports bettors or both.
Those joints were alive with characters and stories of good and bad beats. Some were even true. Tuesday was settle up day around town for those of us who still had money or were owed. If you came up lame for the week we’ll carry your figure over till you locate a fresh bankroll. Those books, especially Churchill, were like banks. I owe you, you owe him so I’ll pay him and you and I are square. Camaraderie.
Even The Stardust was in that old time category in spite of being a big book in a Strip hotel. It was the center of the locals Las Vegas betting market. It was a serious betting establishment full of like minded bettors. Camaraderie. Those haunts are gone, never to return to Las Vegas. Gone with them are the characters and events humorous and not so. They’re only memories but we can yearn for the camaraderie that was so thick in them.
One of my favorite sayings applies here: “Times change, change with them or get out of the way”. What hasn’t changed is 11 is still bigger than 10 and you give the bookmaker your money then try to win it back.
Dan Rooney 1932 - 2017
In the midst of the NFL's mercenary, imperial, self aggrandizing owners stands the Rooney family and humbleness. We lost another in this line that goes back to Art Rooney's founding of the NFL and the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1933. Art was one of us: bettor, bookie, horse owner, player. He earned that franchise money in 1933 at the track and parlayed it into the Steelers and their biggest fan base in the league. Art never grew out of his roots or his self. He lived his life in the same old house on the North Side till he passed. The neighborhood changed but Art Rooney could walk around with no worries. In fact the new breed in the hood looked out for him and his family.
Dan Rooney and his wife Pat had nine children and like Art moved back into their North Side home where he grew up after their children were raised. Dan dressed like he shopped at Goodwill, stood in line at halftime for a hotdog. He would never cut in line, never in front of a fan. He sat in the back row of the press box "with his football guys". His four surviving Rooney boys, ages 78-81, spend the winter in Florida. All have been married for at least 50 years. All of their spouses still are alive, as is Dan Rooney’s widow, Pat. Everyone in the family is amazed it took until 2017 for one to go.
The eight Rooney's in Florida are chartering a plane to return to Pittsburgh for what figures to be the biggest funeral in the city since Rooney Sr.’s in August 1988.“When my dad died, it was like a big part of Pittsburgh died with him,” Art Rooney Jr. said. “I would think it’s the same with Dan.”
The Stilerz and The City of Pittsburgh are soul mates. It's in our DNA just like the dust from the abandoned steel mills and coal mines that are also gone.
In the midst of the NFL's mercenary, imperial, self aggrandizing owners stands the Rooney family and humbleness. We lost another in this line that goes back to Art Rooney's founding of the NFL and the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1933. Art was one of us: bettor, bookie, horse owner, player. He earned that franchise money in 1933 at the track and parlayed it into the Steelers and their biggest fan base in the league. Art never grew out of his roots or his self. He lived his life in the same old house on the North Side till he passed. The neighborhood changed but Art Rooney could walk around with no worries. In fact the new breed in the hood looked out for him and his family.
Dan Rooney and his wife Pat had nine children and like Art moved back into their North Side home where he grew up after their children were raised. Dan dressed like he shopped at Goodwill, stood in line at halftime for a hotdog. He would never cut in line, never in front of a fan. He sat in the back row of the press box "with his football guys". His four surviving Rooney boys, ages 78-81, spend the winter in Florida. All have been married for at least 50 years. All of their spouses still are alive, as is Dan Rooney’s widow, Pat. Everyone in the family is amazed it took until 2017 for one to go.
The eight Rooney's in Florida are chartering a plane to return to Pittsburgh for what figures to be the biggest funeral in the city since Rooney Sr.’s in August 1988.“When my dad died, it was like a big part of Pittsburgh died with him,” Art Rooney Jr. said. “I would think it’s the same with Dan.”
The Stilerz and The City of Pittsburgh are soul mates. It's in our DNA just like the dust from the abandoned steel mills and coal mines that are also gone.
Who Needs Who IMHO
The heads of the major U.S.A. sports leagues, the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL are all on record with recent comments, some more tepid than others, that indicate a softening of opposition to the future Federal legalization of sports betting. As this potentially huge revenue source edges closer to mainstreaming some productive vetting is in order to prevent or minimize hardwired downsides if not well thought out.
Start with the elephant in the room, the NFL. Without the blessings or at least a non damning attitude from the NFL the whole concept is on rickety footing. Say the NBA, NHL and MLS endorse and sanction wagering on their products and the NFL and MLB do not then it might not get through Congress. If it does pass and the NFL opts out of participation, even just verbally, the whole scheme is tainted i.e. “Could something be wrong" or worse yet “Does the NFL think gambling will affect players performance or heaven forbid game outcomes”. The implications will be widely discussed if the NFL passes (no pun intended) on participation.
The NFL must have no direct dealings with gambling entities. Keep it as the NFL has done very successfully. The NFL knows betting on their games coupled with TV is the driving force behind their huge success. Other sports are on TV also but football is made for TV. The NFL has done a masterful job taking advantage of both sports betting and live games. They would be the first and loudest to squawk if the media and networks quit posting current odds on their games. With a wink they say they’re against betting on games but at the same actively support and promote point spreads.
If sports betting is approved on the Federal level the NFL must resist getting in bed with the new kids in town. The NFL doesn’t need them and the gambling entities don’t need anything new from the NFL either. Their is talk of selling real time data to sports books for in game wagering. The world wide gambling community already has in game wagering. We have more data on the NFL than the NFL has on itself.
The networks will reap a landfall of viewers and advertisers once wagering is approved because viewers could wager real time from home. The NFL can cash in simply by upping their contract demands because of the windfall revenue of the networks. The NFL will be in command. They don’t need to send out data or anything else. Just reverse their professed (wink wink) opposition to wagering and stay away from the peripheral grabbers of low hanging fruit.
The other leagues are not as strong and might be tempted to consider new revenue sources dangled before them. They should also increase their end of the new revenue stream from updated contracts with the networks and shun any direct contact with the wagering. Just remember if you pick up a snake and it bites you, you knew it was a snake before you picked it up.
The Las Vegas Raiders
I was wrong in handicapping the NFL owners. I never thought they would put a team in Las Vegas for various reasons I've expressed in articles below. I owe a lot to Las Vegas, it's been a life saver for me and my family and I hope The Las Vegas Raiders are good for the city. After The Steelers and UCLA I have no allegiances. Penn St was in there before the wheels came off their wagon.
Save Me a Seat
It looks like after they milk all they can with the phony bologna, drama and hype the biggest money fight of all time will happen. Too much money to be had to not let Connor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather JR duke it out in the ring.
‘In the ring’ has all the meaning that matters in this spectacle. In a boxing ring with Western boxing rules Mayweather has a better, make that much better chance of staying erect and even winning. In the octagon with UFC rules he gets mangled even though he’ll have a bigger space to run from McGregor.
I’d rather see them in a 16ft or 20ft boxing ring fighting under UFC rules. Mayweather will never, ever agree to that. I once posed the question which of the females Mayweather sucker punched took the best punch. We’ll find out who takes the best punch if these two meet in the ring, any ring.
Anyone care to make a total on the gross revenues generated by this fight? Live gate and PPV, It’s mind boggling. It will probably take place in a venue like Texas Stadium where the field would be utilized to hold maybe 120,000 people (x $500 for the cheapest nose bleed seats). UFC 205 saw McGregor and Eddie Alvarez post 1.6 million PPV buys in the U.S alone and &17M live gate in MSG(20,000 seats). McGregor/Mayweather would dwarf the UFC 205 numbers World Wide.
I saw the first PPV ever on a big screen in Pittsburgh in 1961. A title fight , the rubber match between heavyweights Floyd Patterson the winner and Ingemar Johanson. The total live gate and PPV $3.3 million total.
Another Chance For Kentucky's Rent A Team
UCLA with all homegrown kids, except coaches son Bryce Alford, already beat then #1 Kentucky. The Wildcats started another rent a team with not one starter from Kentucky. Two seasons in a row now the Bruins beat a top ranked Wildcat team. As has been Kentucky's MO since Coach John Calipari took over most of these Wildcats, from all corners of the country, will be one and done. Their text books are still in pristine shape. Yet the animated Kentucky fans are attached to them as though they were all neighborhood kids. Kentucky once had a proud basketball tradition but this system ain't it.
It's only my opinion but this tournament could be Alfords swan song before he heads back to his roots in Indiana after the firing of Tom Crean.
I said the minute UCLA hired Alford he's a bad fit for UCLA. He's a Hoosier at heart and a Bobby Knight disciple. Knight despised Coach Wooden and UCLA. The smart move for Alford would be to use UCLA as a step (backwards in my opinion) to the Indiana job. I hope I was right and UCLA hires Earl Watson. Watson loves UCLA, he's a loyal UCLA guy and a good coach despite being mired with the Phoenix Suns.
Bye Steve.
TV Games
If you're going to watch games on TV don't be overly influenced by the performance of teams on that particular day. You may have caught a team at their very best and never to repeat. Of course the opposite may also be true. They might never stink up the joint like that again. Unless you watch every team every game you're just cherry picking performances and that might influence your decisions. My theory is you have to use the same handicapping input for every team and for every game. Since it's not humanly possible to watch every game on TV then just rely on information that's compiled the same for every team every game. Whether the information you input into your decisions is extensive or not so much just be certain it contains every game situation and every team.
Power ratings and point spreads go on and on cascading over many, many interlocking games. Don't cherry pick a few performances just so you can invent a side.
Moving Numbers
It's hard to imagine a sportsbook losing on the NFL over a whole season but from the comments coming from sportsbook managers it sounds like they managed to do just that. The Super Bowl was a winner for most sportsbooks but it didn't get them out for the year.
What to do next season or more relevant what not to do. Forget the Las Vegas sportsbook managers concept that they have to beat the player. Let the players alone and they'll beat themselves. Get the best line you can and if you have an opinion put it in your opening number then after that no more "I like team bla, bla" or "it's going up or it's going down" as too many sportsbook managers are quoted. The most successful bookmakers back East where I broke in don't know squat about the teams and don't want to know. 11 is bigger than 10, the game is in your favor.
Move numbers according to your action. It's wise to get to the right number quick then when they begin to take it back move slowly. Example:
They lay 6, 6.5, 7,8, Then they begin taking it back. They take 8 so move slowly like 8, 7.5, 7.
Don't overreact on injuries or rumors after you've dealt the game. I'm not talking about injuries that are built into your opening number but late injuries and rumors. Most teams can overcome an injury or two for a game. Some injured teams will even play at a higher level for a game. If Brady's out for a game they can over come it but not for a whole season. Let the players overreact and you'll pick them up with a blotter.
A successful BM knows it's the same $20 bill you pass back and forth with your players only the bookmaker has it for 20 days a month and the players have it only 10.
Don't Laugh Think About It
Most of us aren't affected by limits but there are a reason for limits on your sports wagers. College basketball has the lowest limits followed by the NBA. Next highest is MLB then college football with high limits. It used to be "bet what you want " on the NFL but Las Vegas sportsbooks are getting their lunches eaten this season. That's another story for later.
A theory I've came to accept, but can't and doesn't figure in my handicapping, involves the shape of the ball. Football uses an oblong shaped ball that takes unpredictable bounces that can't be considered in handicapping thus making it difficult to handicapp even using sophisticated algorythyms.
Who can predict a punt dropping dead on the two yard line or rolling back words to the 15 or maybe bouncing into the end zone. It's the shape of the ball. Some NFL teams recognize this and are using rugby type kickers to try and get a predictable bounce.
A player fumbles and the ball bounces into the stomach of a player who happens to be in the way of the balls trajectory. Your player or not, you didn't handicapp that crazy bounce. A fumble might be touched by multiple players as it bounces around. Sure some teams have good take away stats but that's over a season or stretch of games. It might not stand up in the game you have your money on.
Then of course there are missed field goals for and against. The monotonous reviews involving inches, knees, elbows and crazy bounces can make for bad beats or lucky wins. All this makes sense but it's out of our control as far as handicapping a winner. Your bookie doesn't have to worry about it though, he loves football.
Baseballs for the most part don't take those fluke bounces. Stadiums are all different and have their own unique angles, fences, foul teritorys and wind to contend with. At least the ball is round but the thing we can't handicapp is again out of our control. A perfect connection of bat to ball will send the ball in a true path and usually fielded by a player in the proper position. However in baseball a bad swing or tipped ball will send it in crazy place or give it english when it lands. An imperfect connection between bat and ball is impossible to figure in our daily handicapping. Over a length of games it comes into play but not on the next pitch or at bat.
Now we have basketball, the easiest and most accurate to handicapp. Courts are the same dimensions, all baskets are the same hieght and almost all surfaces are the same. No wind or weather to contend with. The ball is perfectly round and never touched by a bat, glove or foot. It's passed from hand to hand and most turnovers are deserved. Even when a basketball comes off the backboard or rim it usually goes where it's supposed to go. We can handicapp turnovers, shooting percentages and rebounds (defensive & offensive) and whatever else we give weight too with a bit of certainty. The home court is most pronounced in basketball of course but we figure that going in. Some teams play better on the road but a good handicapper knows which ones.
All this may explain why our bookie vacations in Miami while we're left behind looking for a fresh BR.
Too Simple
It's that time again when the NCAA fumbles their way to selecting the field for the National Championship Tournament aka March Madness. Since 1981 they have primarily relied on the RPI (rating percentage index) to come up with the field. The resulting brackets have been filled with cupcakes who have no business in the tournament. Worse yet in their wisdom the NCAA Selection Committee leaves out more deserving teams and then insults most of us with twisted rational for their decisions.
This year they're going to try, really, really try to select a better field. How? They're including athletic directors, mathematicians, analysts(???), ESPN gurus, "brain power" is the term they used. Also Jeff Sagarin and his Sagarin Ratings and Ken Pomroy and his ratings. Good luck with that as Pomroy has W VA #3 while the RPI has them #30.
Why not consult the most knowledgeable people available, those souls who rate teams and back them with their money i.e. ask a few of the best handicappers in the nation to pick the best teams out of the 351 Division 1 NCAA teams.
Nah that makes too much sense. They probably don't have degrees or the "brain power" the NCAA geniusis are going to consult this year.
Hypocrisy
Will a pro league take advantage of sports betting if and when our Federal Government legalizes it? The sports betting world as we know it is fast changing. In a few years it will not resemble what we see now. Las Vegas is the world’s high tech sports betting model but what lies ahead could leave Las Vegas behind.
In the tech world I might be considered a luddite but I’ve seen and helped the evolution of Las Vegas sports betting. It’s not close to mature yet IMHO. What lies ahead will make today’s mega race & sportsbooks look like the old store front books I so reverently remember and write about.
If and when the Federal Government legalizes sports betting a few enlightened minds will cash in big time. Imagine stadiums with betting windows not unlike race tracks. What about seats with betting terminals for your in game action. Just deposit money in an account and then try to win it back like now in Las Vegas. Not out of the question when so much money is to be cut up. Politicians, team owners, stadiums and/or big Las Vegas hotel corporations will be fighting over the franchises i.e. licenses. Street bookies will have another out to layoff. It’s mind boggling just trying to get your head around the possibilities.
If the professional leagues drop their hypocrisy they will rule big time. Those stadium betting windows could be theirs but that’s way too much for even me to imagine. The NFL will still hold their noses. The NBA will be first to cash in then MLB will follow. They’re both hinting at recognizing sports betting now.
Who knows what’s going to happen when college athletes start seeking union representation. It’s going to happen. Northwestern University football players were first, others will surely follow one by one. How long till Alabama, Auburn, Ohio St, Michigan, USC, Texas, Notre Dame and maybe other big stadium teams like LSU, Clemson, UCLA, Penn St etc. drop out of the NCAA and form a super grid iron league? The NCAA deserves it, they will have earned it all by their egotistical selves.
National Sports Betting Part 2
Continuing with some productive thoughts. The powers to be mustn't confuse the successful Nevada sports betting model with what lays ahead if the Federal ban is lifted. Whether it's on a National level or State by State they just can't pass a law, start taking sports wagers and spend the anticipated winnings on pet projects. Nevada took decades to reach the point it's now at i.e. business and Government understanding each other and co operating in an atmosphere where both can profit. Can this happen in other jurisdictions? Of course but not likely.
The only way to copy Nevada's successful model is to welcome Nevada's operations in turn key. Let Nevada corporations expand into other jurisdictions, then get out of the way.The wheel has already been invented.
If State or Federal bureaucrats are involved it's a doomed undertaking. Keep them out of the operating end. They can count the beans and collect taxes but keep them the hell out of the operating end. Don't let Government be the banker or headlines and problems depicted in Part 1 are a given.
National Sports Betting Part 1
State of New York Loses $33,000,000 On Jets Victory Over Dolphins.
That’s a headline we could see some day if sports betting becomes legalized on the Federal level. The Federal Government could be the bookmaker which is 99% against that happening so they will farm it out state by state. Some states will get in on it and some won’t.
The key word here is Government and they’re a tough load to carry. If government (State for Federal) is involved in anything other than taxing the business it’s a huge dog to succeed before a single bet is taken. But if the various governments stay out of the way and let Nevada corporations run it for them, with the same tax structure as Nevada imposes on their race/sportsbooks, it will work.
A Nevada sportsbook pays 6.25% of gross revenue to the State and .25% of winnings to the Federal Government. Those figures are doable and allow for successful sportsbook operations. That’s Nevada and we’re blessed with Regulators who have reached these levels after years of hands on experience.
I can’t imagine tax, tax, spend and spend politicians in other jurisdictions keeping their insatiable hands out of the cookie jar. They’re liable to see the big handle and never consider the win might be just 3.5% or 4% on a good year. They can’t help themselves.
Where are they going to get the personnel to handle this potentially monster handle. Where do they get hundreds of employees who will give them first count of this pile of cash. There are thousands of us out there who know our way around the sports betting business from both sides, betting and booking. Good luck weeding them out.
Now suppose we have honest people in all the proper positions. Who is going to be the Government oddsmaker/handicapper? Every politician who has ever played or went to a football or basketball game is going to be an expert ready to second guess and Monday morning quarterback your decisions and moves. It’ll be unbearable for sportsbook management.
Now to the games themselves. Think you’re going to lay 11 to 10. Probably not. My educated guess is the lines and odds will be so steep they’ll be un betable. Say the Steelers are -6.5 in Las Vegas. In Nebraska’s state run book the line may be lay -7.5 take +5.5 and of course the nice State of Nebraska takes all middles. You might even be asked to lay -120. Forget Las Vegas payouts on parlays, teasers or futures. Ain’t gonna happen.
Other than those minor distractions on us the street bookmakers will be happy with the business sent their way.
Pass, Pasadena, El Paso
How much are you willing to endure to find out if you won or lost your bet. A typical NFL game has approximately 11 minutes of action. A typical game lasts 3 hours and 10 minutes but last years Super Bowl dragged on for 3 hours and 43 minutes. This years Super Bowl will go to a commercial break after every two changes of possession. You give your money to your bookie then try and win it back. The Super Bowl is for rookies to bet unless your willing to take all the abuse to find out if you get your money back plus a nice win.
Super Bowl vs Oscars
In many ways the NFL and Hollywood parallel each other. Neither produce anything and both are losing audience share. Each works with union representation i.e. The Screen Actors Guild and The NFL Players Union. It's arguable but the vast majority of players and entertainers are overpaid and don't give a rats behind about their loyal followers. Both put on a spectacular event to determine the best, The Academy Awards and The Super Bowl.
There are also huge differences between the two entertainment giants. To see a movie doesn't require hundreds of dollars as it does to see the NFL in person. In the NFL's favor they can be viewed live and free on TV while a Hollywood produced movie can't until months after they've milked the public for every cent they can.
The biggest difference is the talent level. NFL players are immensely more talented than actors. The NFL plays for real and requires the very best physical, talented and trained players on the planet. Actors are plentiful and don't require much as far as I'm concerned. Yah some are cute and some have sex appeal but I can't think of more than one leading man who could cut it in the NFL. Hollywood has much better dancers.
The Super Bowl will attract 100,000,000, the biggest viewing audience in history today and we can see it for free. Enjoy the game, eat your hearts out Hollywood.
Super Duper LI
Say you were born in or after 1976, the year the first Super Bowl was played.That encompasses a huge segment of our population who have never watched or even imagined this monumental event without all the buildup and manufactured drama and excitement it has morphed into. It's football of course. The NBA or MLB can't do this with their product. This extravaganza can only be built around football.
The first Super Bowl was played in 1967 in the LA Coliseum before 63,000 which was not a sellout. Vince Lombardis Green Bay Packers went up against Lamar Hunts cocky Kansas City Chiefs coached by Hank Stram. The drama was very real and needed no hoopla. The NFL and the AFL were not merged yet and actually hated (maybe too strong a word) each other. They would have played for nothing just to beat the enemy. They almost did by today's standards. The winning Packers got $15,000 and the losing Chiefs got $7,500. Point being, for those who don't remember, the attraction was the game itself, a football game.
Super Duper Bowl LI, besides a football game, will feature highly anticipated advertisements that people actually want to watch. A halftime show that dwarfs anything Hollywood could come up with. Two weeks of talking heads who know less than a good handicapper about the game. A Puppy Bowl, Kitten Bowl, drop dead knockout cheerleaders and a football game that is usually a letdown after all the drama and buildup.
The one thing that hasn't changed: Unless you bet with your wife, an office pool or a silly proposition, you still have to lay 11 to win ten and give or take the points. Only in America, the greatest country ever.
The heads of the major U.S.A. sports leagues, the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL are all on record with recent comments, some more tepid than others, that indicate a softening of opposition to the future Federal legalization of sports betting. As this potentially huge revenue source edges closer to mainstreaming some productive vetting is in order to prevent or minimize hardwired downsides if not well thought out.
Start with the elephant in the room, the NFL. Without the blessings or at least a non damning attitude from the NFL the whole concept is on rickety footing. Say the NBA, NHL and MLS endorse and sanction wagering on their products and the NFL and MLB do not then it might not get through Congress. If it does pass and the NFL opts out of participation, even just verbally, the whole scheme is tainted i.e. “Could something be wrong" or worse yet “Does the NFL think gambling will affect players performance or heaven forbid game outcomes”. The implications will be widely discussed if the NFL passes (no pun intended) on participation.
The NFL must have no direct dealings with gambling entities. Keep it as the NFL has done very successfully. The NFL knows betting on their games coupled with TV is the driving force behind their huge success. Other sports are on TV also but football is made for TV. The NFL has done a masterful job taking advantage of both sports betting and live games. They would be the first and loudest to squawk if the media and networks quit posting current odds on their games. With a wink they say they’re against betting on games but at the same actively support and promote point spreads.
If sports betting is approved on the Federal level the NFL must resist getting in bed with the new kids in town. The NFL doesn’t need them and the gambling entities don’t need anything new from the NFL either. Their is talk of selling real time data to sports books for in game wagering. The world wide gambling community already has in game wagering. We have more data on the NFL than the NFL has on itself.
The networks will reap a landfall of viewers and advertisers once wagering is approved because viewers could wager real time from home. The NFL can cash in simply by upping their contract demands because of the windfall revenue of the networks. The NFL will be in command. They don’t need to send out data or anything else. Just reverse their professed (wink wink) opposition to wagering and stay away from the peripheral grabbers of low hanging fruit.
The other leagues are not as strong and might be tempted to consider new revenue sources dangled before them. They should also increase their end of the new revenue stream from updated contracts with the networks and shun any direct contact with the wagering. Just remember if you pick up a snake and it bites you, you knew it was a snake before you picked it up.
The Las Vegas Raiders
I was wrong in handicapping the NFL owners. I never thought they would put a team in Las Vegas for various reasons I've expressed in articles below. I owe a lot to Las Vegas, it's been a life saver for me and my family and I hope The Las Vegas Raiders are good for the city. After The Steelers and UCLA I have no allegiances. Penn St was in there before the wheels came off their wagon.
Save Me a Seat
It looks like after they milk all they can with the phony bologna, drama and hype the biggest money fight of all time will happen. Too much money to be had to not let Connor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather JR duke it out in the ring.
‘In the ring’ has all the meaning that matters in this spectacle. In a boxing ring with Western boxing rules Mayweather has a better, make that much better chance of staying erect and even winning. In the octagon with UFC rules he gets mangled even though he’ll have a bigger space to run from McGregor.
I’d rather see them in a 16ft or 20ft boxing ring fighting under UFC rules. Mayweather will never, ever agree to that. I once posed the question which of the females Mayweather sucker punched took the best punch. We’ll find out who takes the best punch if these two meet in the ring, any ring.
Anyone care to make a total on the gross revenues generated by this fight? Live gate and PPV, It’s mind boggling. It will probably take place in a venue like Texas Stadium where the field would be utilized to hold maybe 120,000 people (x $500 for the cheapest nose bleed seats). UFC 205 saw McGregor and Eddie Alvarez post 1.6 million PPV buys in the U.S alone and &17M live gate in MSG(20,000 seats). McGregor/Mayweather would dwarf the UFC 205 numbers World Wide.
I saw the first PPV ever on a big screen in Pittsburgh in 1961. A title fight , the rubber match between heavyweights Floyd Patterson the winner and Ingemar Johanson. The total live gate and PPV $3.3 million total.
Another Chance For Kentucky's Rent A Team
UCLA with all homegrown kids, except coaches son Bryce Alford, already beat then #1 Kentucky. The Wildcats started another rent a team with not one starter from Kentucky. Two seasons in a row now the Bruins beat a top ranked Wildcat team. As has been Kentucky's MO since Coach John Calipari took over most of these Wildcats, from all corners of the country, will be one and done. Their text books are still in pristine shape. Yet the animated Kentucky fans are attached to them as though they were all neighborhood kids. Kentucky once had a proud basketball tradition but this system ain't it.
It's only my opinion but this tournament could be Alfords swan song before he heads back to his roots in Indiana after the firing of Tom Crean.
I said the minute UCLA hired Alford he's a bad fit for UCLA. He's a Hoosier at heart and a Bobby Knight disciple. Knight despised Coach Wooden and UCLA. The smart move for Alford would be to use UCLA as a step (backwards in my opinion) to the Indiana job. I hope I was right and UCLA hires Earl Watson. Watson loves UCLA, he's a loyal UCLA guy and a good coach despite being mired with the Phoenix Suns.
Bye Steve.
TV Games
If you're going to watch games on TV don't be overly influenced by the performance of teams on that particular day. You may have caught a team at their very best and never to repeat. Of course the opposite may also be true. They might never stink up the joint like that again. Unless you watch every team every game you're just cherry picking performances and that might influence your decisions. My theory is you have to use the same handicapping input for every team and for every game. Since it's not humanly possible to watch every game on TV then just rely on information that's compiled the same for every team every game. Whether the information you input into your decisions is extensive or not so much just be certain it contains every game situation and every team.
Power ratings and point spreads go on and on cascading over many, many interlocking games. Don't cherry pick a few performances just so you can invent a side.
Moving Numbers
It's hard to imagine a sportsbook losing on the NFL over a whole season but from the comments coming from sportsbook managers it sounds like they managed to do just that. The Super Bowl was a winner for most sportsbooks but it didn't get them out for the year.
What to do next season or more relevant what not to do. Forget the Las Vegas sportsbook managers concept that they have to beat the player. Let the players alone and they'll beat themselves. Get the best line you can and if you have an opinion put it in your opening number then after that no more "I like team bla, bla" or "it's going up or it's going down" as too many sportsbook managers are quoted. The most successful bookmakers back East where I broke in don't know squat about the teams and don't want to know. 11 is bigger than 10, the game is in your favor.
Move numbers according to your action. It's wise to get to the right number quick then when they begin to take it back move slowly. Example:
They lay 6, 6.5, 7,8, Then they begin taking it back. They take 8 so move slowly like 8, 7.5, 7.
Don't overreact on injuries or rumors after you've dealt the game. I'm not talking about injuries that are built into your opening number but late injuries and rumors. Most teams can overcome an injury or two for a game. Some injured teams will even play at a higher level for a game. If Brady's out for a game they can over come it but not for a whole season. Let the players overreact and you'll pick them up with a blotter.
A successful BM knows it's the same $20 bill you pass back and forth with your players only the bookmaker has it for 20 days a month and the players have it only 10.
Don't Laugh Think About It
Most of us aren't affected by limits but there are a reason for limits on your sports wagers. College basketball has the lowest limits followed by the NBA. Next highest is MLB then college football with high limits. It used to be "bet what you want " on the NFL but Las Vegas sportsbooks are getting their lunches eaten this season. That's another story for later.
A theory I've came to accept, but can't and doesn't figure in my handicapping, involves the shape of the ball. Football uses an oblong shaped ball that takes unpredictable bounces that can't be considered in handicapping thus making it difficult to handicapp even using sophisticated algorythyms.
Who can predict a punt dropping dead on the two yard line or rolling back words to the 15 or maybe bouncing into the end zone. It's the shape of the ball. Some NFL teams recognize this and are using rugby type kickers to try and get a predictable bounce.
A player fumbles and the ball bounces into the stomach of a player who happens to be in the way of the balls trajectory. Your player or not, you didn't handicapp that crazy bounce. A fumble might be touched by multiple players as it bounces around. Sure some teams have good take away stats but that's over a season or stretch of games. It might not stand up in the game you have your money on.
Then of course there are missed field goals for and against. The monotonous reviews involving inches, knees, elbows and crazy bounces can make for bad beats or lucky wins. All this makes sense but it's out of our control as far as handicapping a winner. Your bookie doesn't have to worry about it though, he loves football.
Baseballs for the most part don't take those fluke bounces. Stadiums are all different and have their own unique angles, fences, foul teritorys and wind to contend with. At least the ball is round but the thing we can't handicapp is again out of our control. A perfect connection of bat to ball will send the ball in a true path and usually fielded by a player in the proper position. However in baseball a bad swing or tipped ball will send it in crazy place or give it english when it lands. An imperfect connection between bat and ball is impossible to figure in our daily handicapping. Over a length of games it comes into play but not on the next pitch or at bat.
Now we have basketball, the easiest and most accurate to handicapp. Courts are the same dimensions, all baskets are the same hieght and almost all surfaces are the same. No wind or weather to contend with. The ball is perfectly round and never touched by a bat, glove or foot. It's passed from hand to hand and most turnovers are deserved. Even when a basketball comes off the backboard or rim it usually goes where it's supposed to go. We can handicapp turnovers, shooting percentages and rebounds (defensive & offensive) and whatever else we give weight too with a bit of certainty. The home court is most pronounced in basketball of course but we figure that going in. Some teams play better on the road but a good handicapper knows which ones.
All this may explain why our bookie vacations in Miami while we're left behind looking for a fresh BR.
Too Simple
It's that time again when the NCAA fumbles their way to selecting the field for the National Championship Tournament aka March Madness. Since 1981 they have primarily relied on the RPI (rating percentage index) to come up with the field. The resulting brackets have been filled with cupcakes who have no business in the tournament. Worse yet in their wisdom the NCAA Selection Committee leaves out more deserving teams and then insults most of us with twisted rational for their decisions.
This year they're going to try, really, really try to select a better field. How? They're including athletic directors, mathematicians, analysts(???), ESPN gurus, "brain power" is the term they used. Also Jeff Sagarin and his Sagarin Ratings and Ken Pomroy and his ratings. Good luck with that as Pomroy has W VA #3 while the RPI has them #30.
Why not consult the most knowledgeable people available, those souls who rate teams and back them with their money i.e. ask a few of the best handicappers in the nation to pick the best teams out of the 351 Division 1 NCAA teams.
Nah that makes too much sense. They probably don't have degrees or the "brain power" the NCAA geniusis are going to consult this year.
Hypocrisy
Will a pro league take advantage of sports betting if and when our Federal Government legalizes it? The sports betting world as we know it is fast changing. In a few years it will not resemble what we see now. Las Vegas is the world’s high tech sports betting model but what lies ahead could leave Las Vegas behind.
In the tech world I might be considered a luddite but I’ve seen and helped the evolution of Las Vegas sports betting. It’s not close to mature yet IMHO. What lies ahead will make today’s mega race & sportsbooks look like the old store front books I so reverently remember and write about.
If and when the Federal Government legalizes sports betting a few enlightened minds will cash in big time. Imagine stadiums with betting windows not unlike race tracks. What about seats with betting terminals for your in game action. Just deposit money in an account and then try to win it back like now in Las Vegas. Not out of the question when so much money is to be cut up. Politicians, team owners, stadiums and/or big Las Vegas hotel corporations will be fighting over the franchises i.e. licenses. Street bookies will have another out to layoff. It’s mind boggling just trying to get your head around the possibilities.
If the professional leagues drop their hypocrisy they will rule big time. Those stadium betting windows could be theirs but that’s way too much for even me to imagine. The NFL will still hold their noses. The NBA will be first to cash in then MLB will follow. They’re both hinting at recognizing sports betting now.
Who knows what’s going to happen when college athletes start seeking union representation. It’s going to happen. Northwestern University football players were first, others will surely follow one by one. How long till Alabama, Auburn, Ohio St, Michigan, USC, Texas, Notre Dame and maybe other big stadium teams like LSU, Clemson, UCLA, Penn St etc. drop out of the NCAA and form a super grid iron league? The NCAA deserves it, they will have earned it all by their egotistical selves.
National Sports Betting Part 2
Continuing with some productive thoughts. The powers to be mustn't confuse the successful Nevada sports betting model with what lays ahead if the Federal ban is lifted. Whether it's on a National level or State by State they just can't pass a law, start taking sports wagers and spend the anticipated winnings on pet projects. Nevada took decades to reach the point it's now at i.e. business and Government understanding each other and co operating in an atmosphere where both can profit. Can this happen in other jurisdictions? Of course but not likely.
The only way to copy Nevada's successful model is to welcome Nevada's operations in turn key. Let Nevada corporations expand into other jurisdictions, then get out of the way.The wheel has already been invented.
If State or Federal bureaucrats are involved it's a doomed undertaking. Keep them out of the operating end. They can count the beans and collect taxes but keep them the hell out of the operating end. Don't let Government be the banker or headlines and problems depicted in Part 1 are a given.
National Sports Betting Part 1
State of New York Loses $33,000,000 On Jets Victory Over Dolphins.
That’s a headline we could see some day if sports betting becomes legalized on the Federal level. The Federal Government could be the bookmaker which is 99% against that happening so they will farm it out state by state. Some states will get in on it and some won’t.
The key word here is Government and they’re a tough load to carry. If government (State for Federal) is involved in anything other than taxing the business it’s a huge dog to succeed before a single bet is taken. But if the various governments stay out of the way and let Nevada corporations run it for them, with the same tax structure as Nevada imposes on their race/sportsbooks, it will work.
A Nevada sportsbook pays 6.25% of gross revenue to the State and .25% of winnings to the Federal Government. Those figures are doable and allow for successful sportsbook operations. That’s Nevada and we’re blessed with Regulators who have reached these levels after years of hands on experience.
I can’t imagine tax, tax, spend and spend politicians in other jurisdictions keeping their insatiable hands out of the cookie jar. They’re liable to see the big handle and never consider the win might be just 3.5% or 4% on a good year. They can’t help themselves.
Where are they going to get the personnel to handle this potentially monster handle. Where do they get hundreds of employees who will give them first count of this pile of cash. There are thousands of us out there who know our way around the sports betting business from both sides, betting and booking. Good luck weeding them out.
Now suppose we have honest people in all the proper positions. Who is going to be the Government oddsmaker/handicapper? Every politician who has ever played or went to a football or basketball game is going to be an expert ready to second guess and Monday morning quarterback your decisions and moves. It’ll be unbearable for sportsbook management.
Now to the games themselves. Think you’re going to lay 11 to 10. Probably not. My educated guess is the lines and odds will be so steep they’ll be un betable. Say the Steelers are -6.5 in Las Vegas. In Nebraska’s state run book the line may be lay -7.5 take +5.5 and of course the nice State of Nebraska takes all middles. You might even be asked to lay -120. Forget Las Vegas payouts on parlays, teasers or futures. Ain’t gonna happen.
Other than those minor distractions on us the street bookmakers will be happy with the business sent their way.
Pass, Pasadena, El Paso
How much are you willing to endure to find out if you won or lost your bet. A typical NFL game has approximately 11 minutes of action. A typical game lasts 3 hours and 10 minutes but last years Super Bowl dragged on for 3 hours and 43 minutes. This years Super Bowl will go to a commercial break after every two changes of possession. You give your money to your bookie then try and win it back. The Super Bowl is for rookies to bet unless your willing to take all the abuse to find out if you get your money back plus a nice win.
Super Bowl vs Oscars
In many ways the NFL and Hollywood parallel each other. Neither produce anything and both are losing audience share. Each works with union representation i.e. The Screen Actors Guild and The NFL Players Union. It's arguable but the vast majority of players and entertainers are overpaid and don't give a rats behind about their loyal followers. Both put on a spectacular event to determine the best, The Academy Awards and The Super Bowl.
There are also huge differences between the two entertainment giants. To see a movie doesn't require hundreds of dollars as it does to see the NFL in person. In the NFL's favor they can be viewed live and free on TV while a Hollywood produced movie can't until months after they've milked the public for every cent they can.
The biggest difference is the talent level. NFL players are immensely more talented than actors. The NFL plays for real and requires the very best physical, talented and trained players on the planet. Actors are plentiful and don't require much as far as I'm concerned. Yah some are cute and some have sex appeal but I can't think of more than one leading man who could cut it in the NFL. Hollywood has much better dancers.
The Super Bowl will attract 100,000,000, the biggest viewing audience in history today and we can see it for free. Enjoy the game, eat your hearts out Hollywood.
Super Duper LI
Say you were born in or after 1976, the year the first Super Bowl was played.That encompasses a huge segment of our population who have never watched or even imagined this monumental event without all the buildup and manufactured drama and excitement it has morphed into. It's football of course. The NBA or MLB can't do this with their product. This extravaganza can only be built around football.
The first Super Bowl was played in 1967 in the LA Coliseum before 63,000 which was not a sellout. Vince Lombardis Green Bay Packers went up against Lamar Hunts cocky Kansas City Chiefs coached by Hank Stram. The drama was very real and needed no hoopla. The NFL and the AFL were not merged yet and actually hated (maybe too strong a word) each other. They would have played for nothing just to beat the enemy. They almost did by today's standards. The winning Packers got $15,000 and the losing Chiefs got $7,500. Point being, for those who don't remember, the attraction was the game itself, a football game.
Super Duper Bowl LI, besides a football game, will feature highly anticipated advertisements that people actually want to watch. A halftime show that dwarfs anything Hollywood could come up with. Two weeks of talking heads who know less than a good handicapper about the game. A Puppy Bowl, Kitten Bowl, drop dead knockout cheerleaders and a football game that is usually a letdown after all the drama and buildup.
The one thing that hasn't changed: Unless you bet with your wife, an office pool or a silly proposition, you still have to lay 11 to win ten and give or take the points. Only in America, the greatest country ever.
Raiders To Las Vegas?
But I have to bring up a couple points that are not exactly in line with the happy propaganda that the beneficiaries of an acceptance of the Raiders franchise are putting out. First the positive. If any city has the brain power to make this work it's Las Vegas. I've witnessed first hand and watched with awe the transformation from a gambling based attraction to our city to an entertainment draw. Gambling is now almost an after thought brought on by the corporate take over from most of our past individual owners. Dinning, showrooms, high end nightclubs and shopping are the draw. From middle America to the Worlds wealthiest, they can all be catered to and satisfied in Las Vegas.
If they save 50,000 seats for visitors, out of a 65,000 proposed capacity, and all 50,000 are sold we'll then have 42.8 million visitors instead of 42.3. We'll also get added exposure around the country which is another party line selling point.get. Could we use another 500,000 visitors brought here for 10 home games. Sure but that's with only 15,000 season tickets available for the home folks whose bankrolls will be brutalized from the parking lot to the beer stand. That's after they support $750million in taxpayer funds and purchase an overpriced ticket.
24 out of 32 NFL owners must vote to approve this move or it can't go forward. Those owners have to change the NFL blackout policy to appease the hotel/casinos who have a fortune invested in TV generated sportsbooks or they could make a carve out for Raiders owner Mark Davis which they almost certainly won't. TV is the NFL along with gambling. The owners must figure out what compromises to make and what are the consequences of a scandal be it real or made up by a sensationalist media. How are they going to lock down a hotel where their prized players are staying. They'll be targets for the finer temptations Las Vegas has to offer. It goes without saying players won't be allowed to be seen in the casino or sportsbook.
Unless the Las Vegas Raiders change their culture and following from the previous Oakland Raiders it will be a disaster. The NBA had an All-Star game in Las Vegas and it resulted in over 400 arrests.I can imagine hotel high rollers being harassed or worse by old time Raider fans. Of course Las Vegas is a pristine city and it may rub off on those fans if they travel with their beloved Oakland Raiders.
The Rams and Chargers will be close by in Inglewood, CA. The Southern California crowd can stay home and watch the NFL in a privately financed stadium and an accompanying massive complex that will dwarf the Las Vegas project. Tourists can now choose to go to Los Angeles and watch UCLA or USC on Saturday then either the Rams or Chargers on Sunday. Sure beats the Raiders and UNLV.
Las Vegas Raiders Home Games
Picture this: The Las Vegas Raiders are at home vs whoever. Or maybe the Super Bowl is being played in the partially tax funded Las Vegas Stadium. In either event the networks, advertisers and assorted NFL bottom feeders are at a fever pitch. It’s a promoters dream.
At the same time and for their own self serving purposes the Hotels are also riding the crest of this monumental event. It’s tailor made for the sportsbooks they house. Thousands of team followers are in town and most will stop by and support their hero’s with a wager be it a token show of support or a six figure lay down. In fact the whole city is packed with Super Bowl fans going to the game. Even more will fill the sportsbooks and their money drawers.
It’s all set up, the NFL is giddy and all that’s left is to play the game and look at the ratings. At the same time and keeping pace is the Las Vegas gaming brain trust who are way ahead of the NFL. They have been promoting remote wagering i.e. load up your account, head for the game and wager away on the in game or props from your seat the stadium.
We have 65,000 out of the 70,000 in attendance with a wager if the hotels promotions are effective which they will be. The remote wagering crowd will be busy on most situations unfolding on the field. Will they punt or go for it on fourth down? Will the next play be a pass or run? Announcers now have extra work explaining boos in situations that don’t usually warrant them. Why the boos and cheers when the coin flip lands heads? Why all the boos when Rothlisberger throws his third TD pass? Why all the boos when The Steelers are ahead by eleven with three seconds left and take a knee on the two yard line?
So far the NFL has been running around the shower without getting wet but now they’ll have to accept the universal fact that gambling on their games is a huge part of it’s success. Kicking and screaming they’ll have to accept it if The Las Vegas Raiders have anything to say about it.
Maybe worse yet for NFL franchise owners is keeping their million dollar employees in their hotel rooms. You can bet your house & lot in Georgia that some NFL players, who find themselves in Las Vegas, won’t/can’t resist the charms of Las Vegas. Will they all stay away from the tables and sportsbooks, probably not. Will they all avoid the other temptations , probably not.
We all can’t spout the party line, someone has to bring up potential situations in a productive manner.
It
The Steelers have ‘It’. The Yankees have ‘It’. The Lakers lost ‘It’. The USA has ‘It’, we’re back to back champs in WWI & WWII.
The Steelers have it although they play outdoors on the worst grass in the league and share this grass and facilities with a college team. They have it in spite of no cheerleaders.
Maybe it’s the Black & Gold Steeler stuff you see everywhere in the country. They sell more gear than any other team, especially to women. In every stadium they play in the announcers comment on the Terrible Towels and how well The Steelers travel. That mass of people are some of the mill workers & their families who left Western PA with the closing of our mills. Pittsburgh lost 400,000 steel mill jobs. That’s jobs, throw in their families and we have a whole bunch of Burghers who didn’t want to leave their great city. They had to leave though and they took their Steelers loyalties with them. The Stilerz are in their hearts and souls.
Pittsburgh rebounded like tough 2nd and 3rd generation mill workers and it's still is a great city although with different industries. The soul is still there, solid like the Steelers who are the most stable team in the league. Only three head coaches since 1969 but six Super Bowl wins.
My niece was married in Art Rooney’s old Catholic Church on the North Side. In the vestibule there’s a plaque of Mr. Rooney along with the usual Statue of The Blessed Mother. My niece had her reception in the Heinz Field banquet room.
Western PA’s greatest resource has always been coal, steel, football players and coaches on all levels. Whatever ‘It’ is The Stilerz have it win or lose.
I'm Crying Uncle
I’ve tried to dislike the Patriots but I can’t seem to do it. Being from Western PA my provincial pride is all in for the Steelers. Part of my hoping the Patriots stumble is because I don’t want them to pass the Steelers in Super Bowl wins.
The Steelers couldn't stop the Pats on the field with the stupidity that went into their game plan and preparation for the Patriots. Brady takes four plays to score a TD and one of the Steelers better defenders says “we weren’t prepared for the no huddle”. Huh?
Stubbornness, stupidity, cluelessness or all of the above, take your pick, the Steelers didn’t adjust on defense. They insisted on a three man rush that gave Brady all the time he needed to find wide open, uncovered receivers. The Steeler zone was ineffective at best but the genius Steeler coaches tried to disprove the accepted definition of dumb that says “doing the same failed thing over and over will change the outcome”.
Le’Veon Bell wouldn’t have made a difference. The Pats knew how to stand up the very good Steeler offensive linemen and take away most of Bells God given talent just like they reduced Antonio Brown to a sulking, brooding mess on the bench.
It wasn’t fair. This Steeler team was not Chuck Nolls or even Bill Cowers. Bill Belichick could assemble the coaching staff and players to succeed anywhere. I give in, I say “uncle”. The Pats will most likely pass The Stilerz.
Garbage In Garbage Out
One drawback or advancement, depending on your vested interest in handicapping, is the remarkable advancement of big data. In pre computer handicapping and line making we didn’t have this unending paper trail to digest. So much of today’s projections, touts and fodder for announcers and journalists coming out of this data is the sports world’s version of junk science. It’s crap.
The deeper we dig the more we find to analyze, thus the better our projections or the more we get thrown off by that junk science. A case in point that is still in its infancy, at least as far as we the public are concerned, is how much NFL officiating is biased to whatever/whoever. We see with our own eyes, every NFL game, calls and non-calls that infuriate us or we rejoice in. Good cop/bad cop you get the idea.
There’s a study out by a very reputable statistical group on this very subject. The company is simply named 538. They do studies on all sorts of data and statistics and found the following in a preliminary study involving every play from the 2010 through the 2014 NFL seasons:
* Pass interference was called more often between the 32 yard lines on the side of the field closest to where the offensive team benches, players and coaches were located.
* Conversely offensive holding on running plays was called more often between the 32 yard lines closest to the team benches of the team on defense. As the ball moved closer to the end zone this no longer held up in fact sometimes it reversed. The logical conclusion to this uncensored research is the players and coaches are restricted from going past the 32 yard lines, they must stay between them. Makes preliminary sense.
Now let’s play devil’s advocate. The NFL home office wouldn’t admit to anything that casts a negative light on their pristine sport, unless of course they’re being sued for concussions and on the hook for multi millions. What if a team or teams are also aware of these stats and adjust their play calling accordingly. Just saying.
* Another outcome of this report is the home field crowd influences calls less than the 32 yard line scenario. Could be but I’m not endorsing this or any part of this study till it’s been vetted by others with just as much data and coming from different positions.
What raises a red flag is what we all know as fact. The closer to the end zone the smaller the field the defense has to defend and they’re more apt to play with greater intensity.
Sorry, I know it’s hard enough to pick a winner without more wrenches thrown in the machinery.
Lessons Learned
I once spent a year in Reno where I opened up a race & sportsbook for my best friend/mentor Warren Nelson RIP. Those 11 months lapped 1980-81 and created many memories and lessons learned. Warren, a Marine in WWII, grew up in the gambling/boxing town of Missoula, Montana. He was part Owner of the Club Cal-Neva in Reno, brought Keno to Nevada and is a charter inductee in the Nevada Gambling Hall of Fame.
Most telling though is the day a man grabbed $50,000 from the Cal-Neva casino cage and ran out the door. He was eventually run down and the 50K was recovered. Warren refused to press charges saying “what was he (the man) supposed to do”. The cashier was at fault as much as the opportunistic ‘thief’. She left a neat $50,000 bundle right in front of the man while preoccupied and not paying attention. Thief or not she made him one.
Another time in the racebook a player collapsed to the floor where he died. Reno didn’t have many serious horse bettors like in Las Vegas. This poor guy was a $2.00 bettor but that didn’t stop the low life who immediately grabbed his tickets while the guy’s friends were tending to him on the floor. Being a typical $2.00 horse bettor his stash of tickets had but one winning ticket and guess what, the 15watt bulb who stole it tried to cash it for a $7.00 bonanza. This time the law was called in, unlike the $50K episode.
What’s the lesson here? The moral if there is one? To the more serious among us it could be that there’s still justice, real, honest, make sense justice.
To those among us who are scuffling, overcoming bad beats and looking for a fresh BR the lesson might be if you’re running with a $50,000 football then run like Gayle Sayers.
Leave No Doubts
There’s only one sport that leaves nothing to blame on bad beats and doesn’t include second guessing as to the true winner. That’s high school and college wrestling.
No expanding and contracting strike zones, no out or safe judgment calls. No crazy bounces from an oblong football, no missed interference calls. No flags on phantom holding and interference calls to kill a drive. No goofy plays or decisions from coaches. No mistaking a charge from a block. No team going to the foul line 30 times while their visiting opponent has three trips to the line. No players playing at half speed because of ‘foul trouble’.
Most important to me is coming away from wrestling a match without having to watch some NFL seven watt bulb do a dance after making a ‘play’ they’re supposed to make. Or an aircraft carrier sized basketball player scream at the rafters while grabbing his jersey number because he made a basket.
High school and college wrestlers endure the hardest workout regimens and sacrifice the most to stay in incredible shape. There’s no time for grandstanding during a match. No timeouts to get oxygen like in the NFL or ask to be taken out after a 25yd run. It’s just you and an equally determined opponent on the mat. Rarely, if ever, is the wrong wrestlers hand held up in victory. Rarely does a ref make a bad call. The winner is the winner without the bad beats to overcome.
You can always recognize a dedicated, hard working wrestler. He’s the kid with the cauliflower ears and eyebrows and maybe a crooked nose. He’s also refreshingly polite and humble.
Wrestling is the perfect sport to handicap and book. The stats and records reflect actual strengths and capabilities of the opponents be it an individual match or a team result. There’s an array of propositions that are true to the sport without the silliness of the Super Bowl props.
Wrestling is perfect for money lines, rounds, full outcomes, over & unders, etc. In-progress betting would be hard to accommodate because the action is so fast. There’s maybe a minute at most between the three rounds (3,2,2 minutes) and a minute between matches. If all ten weight classes go the distance that’s 70 minutes of nonstop action. The whole event is over in 85-90 minutes including half time but you can count on the correct decisions be it individual or team outcomes and avoid the stench of a bad beat. Wrestling is the purest Western sport.
All the best in the coming year.
3 & 7
I keep hearing how the books are getting beat in the NFL. Time was when that was hard to do. A weekend here or there was a loser for us but certainly not on a regular basis. Proof of that was in the limits we set according to where we were most likely to get hammered. The smallest limits were on college basketball because they were easiest to beat. The NBA was the next level then we raised our limits on baseball quite a bit. Going up the limit ladder we took a bigger bite on college football. Our biggest limits were for the NFL. Why the NFL? We could usually count on picking up the NFL wagers with a blotter.
At The Stardust we made our own numbers and put any opinions we had into our openers. From there it was impersonal . Bookmaking is really simple. Just move your numbers according to your action. Don’t have the mindset that you have to beat the players i.e. when you write a ticket you have to beat that player. Just keep writing tickets and move numbers according to your action. Your limits should have already been set to accommodate your clientele. If you have $10,000 players don’t take $25,000 or more on a single wager. The idea is to get two way action, pay the winners with the losers money and keep the juice for yourself. 11 is bigger than 10.
Thinking you’re a sports guru and your smarts can “beat” the players ain’t gonna stand up. They’ll eat your lunch over time. Don’t move your numbers because the Offshores move theirs. Don’t move on air because a sportsbook up the Strip moved theirs. Think about that last statement. If you move on air without a bet on a certain number you won’t have two way action. Now you really do have to beat the player instead of juicing out. Like I said keep it impersonal and a set of gonads help’s also.
Now we need to get most Las Vegas book managers together and sing a chorus of “But I Might Get Middled”. So what if you book 20 games and one or two fall in the middle. I’ve never, NEVER had a player tell me “I middled you, I’m keeping your money and I’ll never make another bet”. That money will find its way back through the betting windows before the rent is paid.
While we’re still all together lets sing a chorus of “Don’t Move Off Of 3 or 7”. Some of our biggest wins came with moving off, on and over 3 and 7 in the NFL. How else could we get two way action. We’ll either get sided, middled, lose or win it all. 11 is still bigger than 10. And besides it’s the same $20 bill, we just hand it back and forth but the bookmaker has it twenty days a month and the player only has it for ten.
Yes I understand it’s a different game in Las Vegas now. Two way action is harder to achieve but it’s mostly the Las Vegas mindset that says get rid of the wiseguys or at least hide from them. You’ll never get that two way action without the “wisenheimers”.
This column might come across as kind of harsh to LV book managers but it’s meant to be productive.
Don't Shoot the Messenger
UCLA with all homegrown kids, except coaches son Bryce Alford, again beat then #1 Kentucky who started another rent a team with not one starter from Kentucky. As is the Kentucky MO since Coach John Calipari arrived most of these Wildcats will be one and done. Yet the animated Kentucky fans are attached to them as though they were all neighborhood kids. Kentucky once had a proud homegrown basketball tradition but this system ain't it. It's amazing how grown men and women live their lives through a bunch of athletes who don't have anything in common with them or even give a rats @#! about them. It can't be provincial pride since most of these kids have nothing to do with the fine State of Kentucky except their basketball uniforms. Pro franchises are much different because the players they rent have to be the very best they can get from anywhere. It's required to make money and survive, it's all upfront and expected. For pro fans it's as simple as "our rented better players than your rented players". Not so with colleges.
I look for a day, already fast approaching, when colleges put teams on display without the charade, phony rah, rahs and fans and media don't pretend like all the kids are rosy cheeked "student athletes". Some programs still adhere to the college tradition and some are no more than pro teams without a payroll (that we can see).
Heart
Another Thanksgiving is gone but I’m fresh with stories of athletes who are truly thankful, athletes whose courage I hope rubs off on me if I’m ever asked to carry burdens they faced and overcame with grace. So much is made of the jerks we’re subjected to if we follow sports for whatever reason. Some of these jerks are even praised for their brutish behavior off the field and their selfish celebrations on the field.
Not guys like Pitt Panther running back James Connor who has been mentioned as a Heisman Trophy winner, a Lombardi Trophy candidate and will be a high draft choice. Connor was the ACC Player of the Year in 2014. In Pitts first game of the 2015 season he shredded a knee and his season was over. That injury may have saved his life.
Almost two months into his rigorous knee rehab a routine x-ray revealed a mass on his heart. It was Hodgkin’s lymphoma, cancer of the lymph system. With his knee still in need of rehab he also began six months of grueling chemotherapy treatments leaving him exhausted and sick. During chemo treatments and wearing a surgical mask to prevent infection, Connor would sometimes work out at the gym or even practice with the team.
Two weeks after his last chemo treatment this May, he was declared cancer-free. This fall, he made an emotional return to Heinz Field scoring two touchdowns in Pitts season opening win. He hasn’t been stopped since, not by a shredded knee or cancer and set a new ACC record for career touchdowns (53 so far). Against three top ten defenses he had 111 rush yds and 60 receiving vs Oklahoma St, 132 rush & 57 receiving vs Clemson, 117 rush & 27 receiving vs Penn St and throw in 141 rushing yds vs a good Virginia Tech rush defense.
UCLA defensive tackle Takkarist McKinley was abandoned by his parents and thankfully raised by his grandmother. He slept on the floor as a youngster while living with her and he continues to sleep on the floor now although he certainly doesn’t have to. He’ll be a likely first round draft choice. He does it to remind himself of where he came from and what he overcame. By the time you read this he will have played his last collegiate game. He’ll answer the bell and get off the canvas or floor in his case, one last time as a Bruin.
One of my favorites, from the past, is running back Rocky Bleier, four time Super Bowl winner with the The Pittsburgh Steelers. Sounds great but it took an heroic effort and a boost from Art Rooney, beloved gambler and founder/owner of the Steelers.
Rocky Bleier was a sixteenth round draft choice out of Notre Dame in 1968. That same year he was also drafted into the Army and sent into the heart of the Vietnam War. Rocky was shot and tore up by a grenade. While being put back together he received a post card from Art Rooney. It said, "Rock, team's not doing well. We need you. Art Rooney." That was it!
Seven years after a bullet pierced his left thigh and a grenade ravaged his right foot and lower right leg, Bleier rushed for more than 1,000 yards in a season. He was with The Steelers from 1971-80. The Steel Curtin days of four Souper Bowl Championships. He was awarded a Purple Heart and Bronze Star.
But I have to bring up a couple points that are not exactly in line with the happy propaganda that the beneficiaries of an acceptance of the Raiders franchise are putting out. First the positive. If any city has the brain power to make this work it's Las Vegas. I've witnessed first hand and watched with awe the transformation from a gambling based attraction to our city to an entertainment draw. Gambling is now almost an after thought brought on by the corporate take over from most of our past individual owners. Dinning, showrooms, high end nightclubs and shopping are the draw. From middle America to the Worlds wealthiest, they can all be catered to and satisfied in Las Vegas.
If they save 50,000 seats for visitors, out of a 65,000 proposed capacity, and all 50,000 are sold we'll then have 42.8 million visitors instead of 42.3. We'll also get added exposure around the country which is another party line selling point.get. Could we use another 500,000 visitors brought here for 10 home games. Sure but that's with only 15,000 season tickets available for the home folks whose bankrolls will be brutalized from the parking lot to the beer stand. That's after they support $750million in taxpayer funds and purchase an overpriced ticket.
24 out of 32 NFL owners must vote to approve this move or it can't go forward. Those owners have to change the NFL blackout policy to appease the hotel/casinos who have a fortune invested in TV generated sportsbooks or they could make a carve out for Raiders owner Mark Davis which they almost certainly won't. TV is the NFL along with gambling. The owners must figure out what compromises to make and what are the consequences of a scandal be it real or made up by a sensationalist media. How are they going to lock down a hotel where their prized players are staying. They'll be targets for the finer temptations Las Vegas has to offer. It goes without saying players won't be allowed to be seen in the casino or sportsbook.
Unless the Las Vegas Raiders change their culture and following from the previous Oakland Raiders it will be a disaster. The NBA had an All-Star game in Las Vegas and it resulted in over 400 arrests.I can imagine hotel high rollers being harassed or worse by old time Raider fans. Of course Las Vegas is a pristine city and it may rub off on those fans if they travel with their beloved Oakland Raiders.
The Rams and Chargers will be close by in Inglewood, CA. The Southern California crowd can stay home and watch the NFL in a privately financed stadium and an accompanying massive complex that will dwarf the Las Vegas project. Tourists can now choose to go to Los Angeles and watch UCLA or USC on Saturday then either the Rams or Chargers on Sunday. Sure beats the Raiders and UNLV.
Las Vegas Raiders Home Games
Picture this: The Las Vegas Raiders are at home vs whoever. Or maybe the Super Bowl is being played in the partially tax funded Las Vegas Stadium. In either event the networks, advertisers and assorted NFL bottom feeders are at a fever pitch. It’s a promoters dream.
At the same time and for their own self serving purposes the Hotels are also riding the crest of this monumental event. It’s tailor made for the sportsbooks they house. Thousands of team followers are in town and most will stop by and support their hero’s with a wager be it a token show of support or a six figure lay down. In fact the whole city is packed with Super Bowl fans going to the game. Even more will fill the sportsbooks and their money drawers.
It’s all set up, the NFL is giddy and all that’s left is to play the game and look at the ratings. At the same time and keeping pace is the Las Vegas gaming brain trust who are way ahead of the NFL. They have been promoting remote wagering i.e. load up your account, head for the game and wager away on the in game or props from your seat the stadium.
We have 65,000 out of the 70,000 in attendance with a wager if the hotels promotions are effective which they will be. The remote wagering crowd will be busy on most situations unfolding on the field. Will they punt or go for it on fourth down? Will the next play be a pass or run? Announcers now have extra work explaining boos in situations that don’t usually warrant them. Why the boos and cheers when the coin flip lands heads? Why all the boos when Rothlisberger throws his third TD pass? Why all the boos when The Steelers are ahead by eleven with three seconds left and take a knee on the two yard line?
So far the NFL has been running around the shower without getting wet but now they’ll have to accept the universal fact that gambling on their games is a huge part of it’s success. Kicking and screaming they’ll have to accept it if The Las Vegas Raiders have anything to say about it.
Maybe worse yet for NFL franchise owners is keeping their million dollar employees in their hotel rooms. You can bet your house & lot in Georgia that some NFL players, who find themselves in Las Vegas, won’t/can’t resist the charms of Las Vegas. Will they all stay away from the tables and sportsbooks, probably not. Will they all avoid the other temptations , probably not.
We all can’t spout the party line, someone has to bring up potential situations in a productive manner.
It
The Steelers have ‘It’. The Yankees have ‘It’. The Lakers lost ‘It’. The USA has ‘It’, we’re back to back champs in WWI & WWII.
The Steelers have it although they play outdoors on the worst grass in the league and share this grass and facilities with a college team. They have it in spite of no cheerleaders.
Maybe it’s the Black & Gold Steeler stuff you see everywhere in the country. They sell more gear than any other team, especially to women. In every stadium they play in the announcers comment on the Terrible Towels and how well The Steelers travel. That mass of people are some of the mill workers & their families who left Western PA with the closing of our mills. Pittsburgh lost 400,000 steel mill jobs. That’s jobs, throw in their families and we have a whole bunch of Burghers who didn’t want to leave their great city. They had to leave though and they took their Steelers loyalties with them. The Stilerz are in their hearts and souls.
Pittsburgh rebounded like tough 2nd and 3rd generation mill workers and it's still is a great city although with different industries. The soul is still there, solid like the Steelers who are the most stable team in the league. Only three head coaches since 1969 but six Super Bowl wins.
My niece was married in Art Rooney’s old Catholic Church on the North Side. In the vestibule there’s a plaque of Mr. Rooney along with the usual Statue of The Blessed Mother. My niece had her reception in the Heinz Field banquet room.
Western PA’s greatest resource has always been coal, steel, football players and coaches on all levels. Whatever ‘It’ is The Stilerz have it win or lose.
I'm Crying Uncle
I’ve tried to dislike the Patriots but I can’t seem to do it. Being from Western PA my provincial pride is all in for the Steelers. Part of my hoping the Patriots stumble is because I don’t want them to pass the Steelers in Super Bowl wins.
The Steelers couldn't stop the Pats on the field with the stupidity that went into their game plan and preparation for the Patriots. Brady takes four plays to score a TD and one of the Steelers better defenders says “we weren’t prepared for the no huddle”. Huh?
Stubbornness, stupidity, cluelessness or all of the above, take your pick, the Steelers didn’t adjust on defense. They insisted on a three man rush that gave Brady all the time he needed to find wide open, uncovered receivers. The Steeler zone was ineffective at best but the genius Steeler coaches tried to disprove the accepted definition of dumb that says “doing the same failed thing over and over will change the outcome”.
Le’Veon Bell wouldn’t have made a difference. The Pats knew how to stand up the very good Steeler offensive linemen and take away most of Bells God given talent just like they reduced Antonio Brown to a sulking, brooding mess on the bench.
It wasn’t fair. This Steeler team was not Chuck Nolls or even Bill Cowers. Bill Belichick could assemble the coaching staff and players to succeed anywhere. I give in, I say “uncle”. The Pats will most likely pass The Stilerz.
Garbage In Garbage Out
One drawback or advancement, depending on your vested interest in handicapping, is the remarkable advancement of big data. In pre computer handicapping and line making we didn’t have this unending paper trail to digest. So much of today’s projections, touts and fodder for announcers and journalists coming out of this data is the sports world’s version of junk science. It’s crap.
The deeper we dig the more we find to analyze, thus the better our projections or the more we get thrown off by that junk science. A case in point that is still in its infancy, at least as far as we the public are concerned, is how much NFL officiating is biased to whatever/whoever. We see with our own eyes, every NFL game, calls and non-calls that infuriate us or we rejoice in. Good cop/bad cop you get the idea.
There’s a study out by a very reputable statistical group on this very subject. The company is simply named 538. They do studies on all sorts of data and statistics and found the following in a preliminary study involving every play from the 2010 through the 2014 NFL seasons:
* Pass interference was called more often between the 32 yard lines on the side of the field closest to where the offensive team benches, players and coaches were located.
* Conversely offensive holding on running plays was called more often between the 32 yard lines closest to the team benches of the team on defense. As the ball moved closer to the end zone this no longer held up in fact sometimes it reversed. The logical conclusion to this uncensored research is the players and coaches are restricted from going past the 32 yard lines, they must stay between them. Makes preliminary sense.
Now let’s play devil’s advocate. The NFL home office wouldn’t admit to anything that casts a negative light on their pristine sport, unless of course they’re being sued for concussions and on the hook for multi millions. What if a team or teams are also aware of these stats and adjust their play calling accordingly. Just saying.
* Another outcome of this report is the home field crowd influences calls less than the 32 yard line scenario. Could be but I’m not endorsing this or any part of this study till it’s been vetted by others with just as much data and coming from different positions.
What raises a red flag is what we all know as fact. The closer to the end zone the smaller the field the defense has to defend and they’re more apt to play with greater intensity.
Sorry, I know it’s hard enough to pick a winner without more wrenches thrown in the machinery.
Lessons Learned
I once spent a year in Reno where I opened up a race & sportsbook for my best friend/mentor Warren Nelson RIP. Those 11 months lapped 1980-81 and created many memories and lessons learned. Warren, a Marine in WWII, grew up in the gambling/boxing town of Missoula, Montana. He was part Owner of the Club Cal-Neva in Reno, brought Keno to Nevada and is a charter inductee in the Nevada Gambling Hall of Fame.
Most telling though is the day a man grabbed $50,000 from the Cal-Neva casino cage and ran out the door. He was eventually run down and the 50K was recovered. Warren refused to press charges saying “what was he (the man) supposed to do”. The cashier was at fault as much as the opportunistic ‘thief’. She left a neat $50,000 bundle right in front of the man while preoccupied and not paying attention. Thief or not she made him one.
Another time in the racebook a player collapsed to the floor where he died. Reno didn’t have many serious horse bettors like in Las Vegas. This poor guy was a $2.00 bettor but that didn’t stop the low life who immediately grabbed his tickets while the guy’s friends were tending to him on the floor. Being a typical $2.00 horse bettor his stash of tickets had but one winning ticket and guess what, the 15watt bulb who stole it tried to cash it for a $7.00 bonanza. This time the law was called in, unlike the $50K episode.
What’s the lesson here? The moral if there is one? To the more serious among us it could be that there’s still justice, real, honest, make sense justice.
To those among us who are scuffling, overcoming bad beats and looking for a fresh BR the lesson might be if you’re running with a $50,000 football then run like Gayle Sayers.
Leave No Doubts
There’s only one sport that leaves nothing to blame on bad beats and doesn’t include second guessing as to the true winner. That’s high school and college wrestling.
No expanding and contracting strike zones, no out or safe judgment calls. No crazy bounces from an oblong football, no missed interference calls. No flags on phantom holding and interference calls to kill a drive. No goofy plays or decisions from coaches. No mistaking a charge from a block. No team going to the foul line 30 times while their visiting opponent has three trips to the line. No players playing at half speed because of ‘foul trouble’.
Most important to me is coming away from wrestling a match without having to watch some NFL seven watt bulb do a dance after making a ‘play’ they’re supposed to make. Or an aircraft carrier sized basketball player scream at the rafters while grabbing his jersey number because he made a basket.
High school and college wrestlers endure the hardest workout regimens and sacrifice the most to stay in incredible shape. There’s no time for grandstanding during a match. No timeouts to get oxygen like in the NFL or ask to be taken out after a 25yd run. It’s just you and an equally determined opponent on the mat. Rarely, if ever, is the wrong wrestlers hand held up in victory. Rarely does a ref make a bad call. The winner is the winner without the bad beats to overcome.
You can always recognize a dedicated, hard working wrestler. He’s the kid with the cauliflower ears and eyebrows and maybe a crooked nose. He’s also refreshingly polite and humble.
Wrestling is the perfect sport to handicap and book. The stats and records reflect actual strengths and capabilities of the opponents be it an individual match or a team result. There’s an array of propositions that are true to the sport without the silliness of the Super Bowl props.
Wrestling is perfect for money lines, rounds, full outcomes, over & unders, etc. In-progress betting would be hard to accommodate because the action is so fast. There’s maybe a minute at most between the three rounds (3,2,2 minutes) and a minute between matches. If all ten weight classes go the distance that’s 70 minutes of nonstop action. The whole event is over in 85-90 minutes including half time but you can count on the correct decisions be it individual or team outcomes and avoid the stench of a bad beat. Wrestling is the purest Western sport.
All the best in the coming year.
3 & 7
I keep hearing how the books are getting beat in the NFL. Time was when that was hard to do. A weekend here or there was a loser for us but certainly not on a regular basis. Proof of that was in the limits we set according to where we were most likely to get hammered. The smallest limits were on college basketball because they were easiest to beat. The NBA was the next level then we raised our limits on baseball quite a bit. Going up the limit ladder we took a bigger bite on college football. Our biggest limits were for the NFL. Why the NFL? We could usually count on picking up the NFL wagers with a blotter.
At The Stardust we made our own numbers and put any opinions we had into our openers. From there it was impersonal . Bookmaking is really simple. Just move your numbers according to your action. Don’t have the mindset that you have to beat the players i.e. when you write a ticket you have to beat that player. Just keep writing tickets and move numbers according to your action. Your limits should have already been set to accommodate your clientele. If you have $10,000 players don’t take $25,000 or more on a single wager. The idea is to get two way action, pay the winners with the losers money and keep the juice for yourself. 11 is bigger than 10.
Thinking you’re a sports guru and your smarts can “beat” the players ain’t gonna stand up. They’ll eat your lunch over time. Don’t move your numbers because the Offshores move theirs. Don’t move on air because a sportsbook up the Strip moved theirs. Think about that last statement. If you move on air without a bet on a certain number you won’t have two way action. Now you really do have to beat the player instead of juicing out. Like I said keep it impersonal and a set of gonads help’s also.
Now we need to get most Las Vegas book managers together and sing a chorus of “But I Might Get Middled”. So what if you book 20 games and one or two fall in the middle. I’ve never, NEVER had a player tell me “I middled you, I’m keeping your money and I’ll never make another bet”. That money will find its way back through the betting windows before the rent is paid.
While we’re still all together lets sing a chorus of “Don’t Move Off Of 3 or 7”. Some of our biggest wins came with moving off, on and over 3 and 7 in the NFL. How else could we get two way action. We’ll either get sided, middled, lose or win it all. 11 is still bigger than 10. And besides it’s the same $20 bill, we just hand it back and forth but the bookmaker has it twenty days a month and the player only has it for ten.
Yes I understand it’s a different game in Las Vegas now. Two way action is harder to achieve but it’s mostly the Las Vegas mindset that says get rid of the wiseguys or at least hide from them. You’ll never get that two way action without the “wisenheimers”.
This column might come across as kind of harsh to LV book managers but it’s meant to be productive.
Don't Shoot the Messenger
UCLA with all homegrown kids, except coaches son Bryce Alford, again beat then #1 Kentucky who started another rent a team with not one starter from Kentucky. As is the Kentucky MO since Coach John Calipari arrived most of these Wildcats will be one and done. Yet the animated Kentucky fans are attached to them as though they were all neighborhood kids. Kentucky once had a proud homegrown basketball tradition but this system ain't it. It's amazing how grown men and women live their lives through a bunch of athletes who don't have anything in common with them or even give a rats @#! about them. It can't be provincial pride since most of these kids have nothing to do with the fine State of Kentucky except their basketball uniforms. Pro franchises are much different because the players they rent have to be the very best they can get from anywhere. It's required to make money and survive, it's all upfront and expected. For pro fans it's as simple as "our rented better players than your rented players". Not so with colleges.
I look for a day, already fast approaching, when colleges put teams on display without the charade, phony rah, rahs and fans and media don't pretend like all the kids are rosy cheeked "student athletes". Some programs still adhere to the college tradition and some are no more than pro teams without a payroll (that we can see).
Heart
Another Thanksgiving is gone but I’m fresh with stories of athletes who are truly thankful, athletes whose courage I hope rubs off on me if I’m ever asked to carry burdens they faced and overcame with grace. So much is made of the jerks we’re subjected to if we follow sports for whatever reason. Some of these jerks are even praised for their brutish behavior off the field and their selfish celebrations on the field.
Not guys like Pitt Panther running back James Connor who has been mentioned as a Heisman Trophy winner, a Lombardi Trophy candidate and will be a high draft choice. Connor was the ACC Player of the Year in 2014. In Pitts first game of the 2015 season he shredded a knee and his season was over. That injury may have saved his life.
Almost two months into his rigorous knee rehab a routine x-ray revealed a mass on his heart. It was Hodgkin’s lymphoma, cancer of the lymph system. With his knee still in need of rehab he also began six months of grueling chemotherapy treatments leaving him exhausted and sick. During chemo treatments and wearing a surgical mask to prevent infection, Connor would sometimes work out at the gym or even practice with the team.
Two weeks after his last chemo treatment this May, he was declared cancer-free. This fall, he made an emotional return to Heinz Field scoring two touchdowns in Pitts season opening win. He hasn’t been stopped since, not by a shredded knee or cancer and set a new ACC record for career touchdowns (53 so far). Against three top ten defenses he had 111 rush yds and 60 receiving vs Oklahoma St, 132 rush & 57 receiving vs Clemson, 117 rush & 27 receiving vs Penn St and throw in 141 rushing yds vs a good Virginia Tech rush defense.
UCLA defensive tackle Takkarist McKinley was abandoned by his parents and thankfully raised by his grandmother. He slept on the floor as a youngster while living with her and he continues to sleep on the floor now although he certainly doesn’t have to. He’ll be a likely first round draft choice. He does it to remind himself of where he came from and what he overcame. By the time you read this he will have played his last collegiate game. He’ll answer the bell and get off the canvas or floor in his case, one last time as a Bruin.
One of my favorites, from the past, is running back Rocky Bleier, four time Super Bowl winner with the The Pittsburgh Steelers. Sounds great but it took an heroic effort and a boost from Art Rooney, beloved gambler and founder/owner of the Steelers.
Rocky Bleier was a sixteenth round draft choice out of Notre Dame in 1968. That same year he was also drafted into the Army and sent into the heart of the Vietnam War. Rocky was shot and tore up by a grenade. While being put back together he received a post card from Art Rooney. It said, "Rock, team's not doing well. We need you. Art Rooney." That was it!
Seven years after a bullet pierced his left thigh and a grenade ravaged his right foot and lower right leg, Bleier rushed for more than 1,000 yards in a season. He was with The Steelers from 1971-80. The Steel Curtin days of four Souper Bowl Championships. He was awarded a Purple Heart and Bronze Star.
