Reap What You Sow
The NFL finds itself in a no win situation of their own making and a sizeable portion of the Country is rooting against them. Another portion is now emboldened by recent media exposer. In the simplest of terms we have NFL players who sit or kneel during our National Anthem vs those who oppose them and their actions.
Up until now the League and team owners could largely ignore the situation hoping it goes away. No more. The NFL is now an ideological battleground. They’ve drawn that famous line in the sand provoked by President Trump.
Like him or not President Trump has forced them into a struggle with passionate Americans who will defend their beliefs just like the protesting players are defending theirs. Other players are now given cover to jump in riding the fashionable wave of those who dislike the President.
The League is misreading their once high status. Look no further than NFL Commissioner Goodells response to President Trump’s call for owners to fire players who kneel during the national anthem and also encouraging fans to walk out in protest or just stay away from the games altogether. Goodells response to President Trump in part: “ Divisive comments like these demonstrate an unfortunate lack of respect for the NFL, our great game and all of our players, and a failure to understand the overwhelming force for good our clubs and players represent in our communities.” HUH?
NBA deep thinkers like Lebron James and Stephen Curry jumped in with name calling and even an MLB player sheepishly took a knee while another brave soul put his hand on his shoulder.
Who’s going to blink first. It won’t be the fans who will learn first hand they can do very well without this mess and those who caused it.
Dear NCAA, Forgedabowdit
How can it get any goofier? Now the 15watt bulbs in the NCAA front office are proposing a suicide pill to stave off an inevitable uprising. College athletes are heading for unionization or some form of collective protection. They want their piece of the money pie they provide with what they perceive as not enough compensation. They do get an education if they take advantage. The NCAA rules are being loosened up but maybe a bit too late to stave off the inevitable
With a food stipend they no longer have to eat hamburger while the coaching the staff eats steak and lobster. They can fly home on the colleges dime now and “enjoy” other loosening of archaic rules. The NCAA is the first to blink. They are going all out to create the ultimate stopgap rule to delay the inevitable which is a team saying we’re not going to play in the Rose Bowl Game or the Cotton Bowl Game unless we’re cut in on the gravy.
What’s this brainstorm the NCAA is contemplating? In broad terms any kid can transfer anywhere they want, if they are welcome of course, and play immediately with no need to sit out a year.
All that’s required is the school they’re transferring into has the same or equal course they are leaving. An athlete taking basket weaving at Potluck U, after an exceptional season, can transfer to Mortons Steak House and play immediately. Some schools will remain academically honest of course but the bandit schools will take advantage and bring down others with them so they can remain competitive.
Basketball with 13 man rosters will be especially vulnerable. A kid transfers out to start immediately at a school who will then cut a kid to make room. That kid will now transfer to another school who will have to make room and on and on. What about a successful team that now has three kids looking to take advantage of their good season and transfer individually or together. Together is not out of the question. See where this is going if the NCAA goes through with this or some form of it.
Getting Hard To Watch
Football season is back for another run and wearing more than ever more bling. Can football, as we know and appreciate it, hold up under the weight competing networks have piled on the backs of the game’s periphery? Follow the bouncing ball (pun intended).Friday nights were for high school games, almost like a religion in some parts, while Saturdays were looked forward to because it was college football time. Sundays were special because we knew it was time for the best of the best, pro football.
Now it’s becoming something of a blur, watered down almost. The networks have taken advantage of the huge appeal of football and milked it for every edge they can get to capture each other’s viewers. Nothing wrong with that; after all, this is the USA and we have the best business model in the known world and the smartest people to run it.
Or do we? This first week saw the colleges on TV Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The NFL will be on Thursdays, Saturdays, Sundays and Mondays this season as always. Our high schools are holding on in spite of the greediness of the networks.
The NFL has pre-game shows that are redundant at best. Hours of nonsense from an assortment of experts shouting over each other.Of course we don’t have to subject ourselves to it, which I don’t, but that’s my choice. Putting up with challenges and 16 momentum-killing commercial breaks is part of the reason behind the slide in attendance and ratings. Now we have the 15-watt bulbs disrespecting the flag grabbing attention. Add in a few bad calls and inept officials trying to interpret rule changes meant to aid offenses and the whole scene can be likened to a Hollywood special effects dud.
How will the NFL react to their game imploding? It’s not much of a stretch to imagine stadiums full of fans watching through virtual reality glasses. The next logical step will be virtual reality viewing in your living room. How about artificial intelligence calling both offense and defense plays and schemes? Millennials won’t need to adapt since they’re already in that zone, and it’s the Millennials who will eventually take over. Oh, and there will also be some football along with everything else piled on the game. Take care, and pass the Windex my virtual lenses or cloudy.
No Rematch! Thank You!
Better Adapt or Get Out of the Way
Deal me out of the McGregor / Mayweather “fight”. I understand it and understand why it’s even happening. Sadly to me it’s another step in the evolution of sports and sports betting into what should be labeled “spectacle sports”. Spectacle sports don’t rely on the sport itself as the reason to watch or participate. Rather it’s a hybrid of the game unfolding and showbiz.
This fight is not as bizarre as the fight they tried to promote between Muhammad Ali and Wilt Chamberlin or Rubin “Hurricane” Carter” knocking out a horse with one left hook. We know McGregor would destroy and humble (if possible) Mayweather if they fought using the skills that got them both here. I’m convinced the money would be the same, maybe more, if McGregor could use his MMA skills. I’d watch that fight but not this fight with one fighter being handcuffed. Of course Mayweather would NEVER climb into a ring with the real Connor McGregor.
The NFL is another example of the slide. Look what’s being included and even given equal appeal. The League has sanctioned choreographed group end zone dances. It’s evolved from earning a penalty to being encouraged. In spite of attendance being down 8% and falling they haven’t addressed the fatal flaw of players disrespecting the American flag. That’s going to grow into another spectacle. The League is already marketing the Super Bowl half time show like the game is an afterthought. The draft is a two day TV spectacle.
The NFL figures will continue to slide in both TV and attendance. They’ll make up for the lost revenue by going to an 18 game schedule, more advertising (if that’s possible) and expanding to other country’s and continents.
Whoever thought we’d see high schools dropping football programs for lack of kids going out. The newer iGen kids and their predecessors the Millennials are more interested in safe spaces and smartphones than watching or participating in sports. Virtual relationships and virtual entertainment are taking the place once occupied by athletes and athletic events. We aging baby boomers and beyond have to get with it or get outa the way. Relax, it ain’t all bad.
When's the rematch?
Gotcha
Billy Walters, who never harmed anyone as far as I know, was finally cornered by the Feds. This was their fourth or so try at convicting him and it didn’t come via a sports gambling indictment. An FBI agent based out of Las Vegas in the 80s, was obsessed with indicting and getting a conviction on Walters as an illegal bookie. While learning on the job this agent, who by the way spent time grilling me in my Stardust office, managed to get grand juries to look at his inept investigating of Walters but Billy beat every attempt in court simply because he convinced jury’s he was betting not booking.
Dr Ivin Mindlin, a onetime New York orthopedic surgeon, who worked with the NY Giants among his clients, moved to Las Vegas in the 70s. Dr Mindlin gave up his surgical practice to bet sports. However he did do an operation in LV I can attest to since it was on me. It must have been on a good day in baseball for the good doctor because the operation was a success. We became friends, even before the operation. He didn’t charge me a cent nor did Sunrise Hospital.
Dr Mindlin bet with us at Churchill Downs in the 70s & early 80s among his other outs. Dr Mindlin teamed up with Michael Kent a computer genius who worked for Westinghouse in Pittsburgh. Kent had a computer system in those early days that was a winner picking sports. Early 80’s and Billy Walters, a self made successful, wealthy sports bettor with many outs around the country, joins with Mindlin and Kent to form The Computer Group as they came to be called.
The Computer Group was good for us at The Stardust, they helped us win. It was simple despite the tales of uninformed journalists and others who weren’t involved. The Computer bet with us early each morning since we were the first to put up our numbers. Then when our numbers were bet into and moved other books around town and around the country copied our adjusted numbers and began to take action. The only problem for them was the numbers they painted were at their apex and the only action they got was one way.
We at The Dust however got two way action because later we got money on the other side. The rub was some of these games were phony laydowns by the Computer Group because they wanted to take the other side with books in LV and around the country that put up our massaged numbers. They could simply cherry pick them to death. We could win with two way action i.e. juice out while others could lose because they needed to beat their one way action. The Computer Group wanted The Stardust to win. Sweet huh?
I hope Billy gets sent to a minimum security Federal location. The Federal system is generous with doling out good time i.e. months taken off your sentence for good behavior. He could be paroled in a couple years I hope. As I said Billy Walters never harmed anyone. He was always a gentleman and it was an honest trait. Nothing phony about him. He was very, very generous in sharing his winnings with deserving people and causes. He gave many millions to individuals and causes who needed and deserved help.
If you can’t win on appeal Billy I hope you do “good time” except doing time is never really good time.
Where’s It Heading
Yesterday doesn’t mean as much as it used to. Recalling the days once described as yesterday could mean a year ago or two or a decade ago or two. Not any more since technology is developing at warp speed so what held true Tuesday may be obsolete by Wednesday.
The games we wager our money on are not the games of “yesterday” when outcomes were truer to form. The fields and courts are still the same dimensions as always but the rules and styles of play on them have been tinkered with and altered.
Perform enhancing drugs can be disguised. No way are all the super muscled athletes the product of gene pools or hard workouts. The record books should use asterics beside some of the entries regardless of the assurances of the various leagues and governing body’s that their athletes are pure.
Major League Baseball in an effort to add more offense i.e. runs to their game, have created another dead ball live ball controversy. We know the drill, the League just can’t figure out how they are on an pace to destroy the home run record by 400 this season. That’s four hundred but “trust us the ball is the same”.
The NFL has turned their game into a pitch and catch, crowd pleasing (?) extravaganza. Can’t touch a QB and defensive backs can’t use all their skills. Just throw the damn thing and let a receiver catch it. After reaching the end zone the league is now promoting end zone dances. They’ve already announced and started promoting Brittany Spears as the half time show of Super Bowl L1. Nothing wrong with Brittany Spears, she’s awesome, but the football game is becoming the backup act.
The NBA has altered their game the most. The NBA has evolved, purposely I might add, into nothing more than first guy past mid court shoots a three pointer or maybe two passes then a lob into an aircraft carrier who posts up another aircraft carrier then shoots. If he happens to make it (which he’s paid to do) he might grab his jersey, pound his chest and scream. The league loves it and so must the fans and TV viewers.
I predict, in the not too distant future, we’ll be able to don Virtual Reality head sets in our seats at the game and view the action from any angle. That’ll be awesome. Just as awesome would be the ability to join a money pool when purchasing your ticket and receiving a mobile device to bet on the game in progress. That’s a long shot but it’s the natural progression of the modern game and technology.
Talk about technology. eSports has plugged their product into the major sports outlets. eSports has pre game press conferences, they promote how they “train” and the status of their teams heads. They have their own super stars. There are eSports mini stadiums so the fan base, mostly millenials, can mimic the main stream sports experience if our current big time sports don’t appeal to them.
Hold on to your hats boys and girls, it’s changing fast. Some for the best and some not so.
Good Luck With That
The available stats for handicapping baseball just keep coming. They’re getting as silly as most of the prop bets offered in LV sportsbooks. If you’re interested you can find the “tilts” or the angle of break of a particular pitchers slider or his “spin rate” of pitches. Will a batters “launch angle” of his swing help you pick a winner? What about the velocities of balls coming off individual batters.
The infield measurements are uniform. Distance between bases, pitcher’s mound to home plate, height of mound and dirt circle all the same. Batters boxes, home plates, bases all the same.
That’s where it ends. Football fields and basketball courts are uniform. Not so with baseball. Foul ball areas and fences vary from field to field and the configuration of those areas change from venue to venue. No two fields are the same.
It’s easy to get wind velocity and direction as well as the sun and shadows. All this info, no matter how deep you go into stats, will be useless after a few bad calls which we can’t predict or handicap. We know the hitters parks and the under parks. We know the different home plate umpires strike zones but he can still be off a couple pitches and that’s all it takes to switch a winner to a loser. We might have handicapped all the relevant info correctly but how do we make up for bad calls around the bases? Despite all this baseball remains the easiest to beat over a season provided we use good money management.
Sportsbook management has been crying especially about the NFL. Week after week they get their lunch eaten. It’s awful hard to lose on the NFL using good old fashioned bookmaking sense.
Sports handicapping is going the way of flip phones and telephones. I don’t think you’ll see many bettors studying two opponents and all the relevant stats and information available on them. Football and basketball, especially football, are covertly becoming studio games. No need to use your brain or get off the couch, just tune into the never ending pre game shows and expert after expert will break the game down for you. Every network tries to outdo the competition by lining up their very own experts and dazzle their viewers with giddy panel arguments and showmanship.
Next time you see a sports bettor doing his own work in a sportsbook then make a wager on his own opinion and skills buy him a drink. Most wagers now days are decided by provincial pride or a talking head on TV. No need to waste your gray matter when a 15 watt ex player can make the decision for you.
What makes a grown man or woman attach themselves to and live through a bunch of players on a particular team who don’t give a rats behind about them. Wasn’t always like that. In the glory days of sports betting we had two way action till corporate thinking took control of bookmaking. They chased so called wiseguys who bet their own opinions and provided two way action. Now after they chased any chance of buy back i.e. two way action the public lines up, all in sync, and mindlessly bet the same side. You know the routine: dog & under, favorite & over.
Moving Numbers
It's hard to imagine a sportsbook losing on the NFL over a whole season but from the comments coming from sportsbook managers it sounds like they managed to do just that. The Super Bowl was a winner for most sportsbooks but it didn't get them out for the year.
What to do next season or more relevant what not to do. Forget the Las Vegas sportsbook managers concept that they have to beat the player. Let the players alone and they'll beat themselves. Get the best line you can and if you have an opinion put it in your opening number then after that no more "I like team bla, bla" or "it's going up or it's going down" as too many sportsbook managers are quoted. The most successful bookmakers back East where I broke in don't know squat about the teams and don't want to know. 11 is bigger than 10, the game is in your favor.
Move numbers according to your action. It's wise to get to the right number quick then when they begin to take it back move slowly. Example:
They lay 6, 6.5, 7,8, Then they begin taking it back. They take 8 so move slowly like 8, 7.5, 7.
Don't overreact on injuries or rumors after you've dealt the game. I'm not talking about injuries that are built into your opening number but late injuries and rumors. Most teams can overcome an injury or two for a game. Some injured teams will even play at a higher level for a game. If Brady's out for a game they can over come it but not for a whole season. Let the players overreact and you'll pick them up with a blotter.
A successful BM knows it's the same $20 bill you pass back and forth with your players only the bookmaker has it for 20 days a month and the players have it only 10.
3 & 7
I keep hearing how the books are getting beat in the NFL. Time was when that was hard to do. A weekend here or there was a loser for us but certainly not on a regular basis. Proof of that was in the limits we set according to where we were most likely to get hammered. The smallest limits were on college basketball because they were easiest to beat. The NBA was the next level then we raised our limits on baseball quite a bit. Going up the limit ladder we took a bigger bite on college football. Our biggest limits were for the NFL. Why the NFL? We could usually count on picking up the NFL wagers with a blotter.
At The Stardust we made our own numbers and put any opinions we had into our openers. From there it was impersonal . Bookmaking is really simple. Just move your numbers according to your action. Don’t have the mindset that you have to beat the players i.e. when you write a ticket you have to beat that player. Just keep writing tickets and move numbers according to your action. Your limits should have already been set to accommodate your clientele. If you have $10,000 players don’t take $25,000 or more on a single wager. The idea is to get two way action, pay the winners with the losers money and keep the juice for yourself. 11 is bigger than 10.
Thinking you’re a sports guru and your smarts can “beat” the players ain’t gonna stand up. They’ll eat your lunch over time. Don’t move your numbers because the Offshores move theirs. Don’t move on air because a sportsbook up the Strip moved theirs. Think about that last statement. If you move on air without a bet on a certain number you won’t have two way action. Now you really do have to beat the player instead of juicing out. Like I said keep it impersonal and a set of gonads help’s also.
Now we need to get most Las Vegas book managers together and sing a chorus of “But I Might Get Middled”. So what if you book 20 games and one or two fall in the middle. I’ve never, NEVER had a player tell me “I middled you, I’m keeping your money and I’ll never make another bet”. That money will find its way back through the betting windows before the rent is paid.
While we’re still all together lets sing a chorus of “Don’t Move Off Of 3 or 7”. Some of our biggest wins came with moving off, on and over 3 and 7 in the NFL. How else could we get two way action. We’ll either get sided, middled, lose or win it all. 11 is still bigger than 10. And besides it’s the same $20 bill, we just hand it back and forth but the bookmaker has it twenty days a month and the player only has it for ten.
Yes I understand it’s a different game in Las Vegas now. Two way action is harder to achieve but it’s mostly the Las Vegas mindset that says get rid of the wiseguys or at least hide from them. You’ll never get that two way action without the “wisenheimers”.
This column might come across as kind of harsh to LV book managers but it’s meant to be productive.
The NFL finds itself in a no win situation of their own making and a sizeable portion of the Country is rooting against them. Another portion is now emboldened by recent media exposer. In the simplest of terms we have NFL players who sit or kneel during our National Anthem vs those who oppose them and their actions.
Up until now the League and team owners could largely ignore the situation hoping it goes away. No more. The NFL is now an ideological battleground. They’ve drawn that famous line in the sand provoked by President Trump.
Like him or not President Trump has forced them into a struggle with passionate Americans who will defend their beliefs just like the protesting players are defending theirs. Other players are now given cover to jump in riding the fashionable wave of those who dislike the President.
The League is misreading their once high status. Look no further than NFL Commissioner Goodells response to President Trump’s call for owners to fire players who kneel during the national anthem and also encouraging fans to walk out in protest or just stay away from the games altogether. Goodells response to President Trump in part: “ Divisive comments like these demonstrate an unfortunate lack of respect for the NFL, our great game and all of our players, and a failure to understand the overwhelming force for good our clubs and players represent in our communities.” HUH?
NBA deep thinkers like Lebron James and Stephen Curry jumped in with name calling and even an MLB player sheepishly took a knee while another brave soul put his hand on his shoulder.
Who’s going to blink first. It won’t be the fans who will learn first hand they can do very well without this mess and those who caused it.
Dear NCAA, Forgedabowdit
How can it get any goofier? Now the 15watt bulbs in the NCAA front office are proposing a suicide pill to stave off an inevitable uprising. College athletes are heading for unionization or some form of collective protection. They want their piece of the money pie they provide with what they perceive as not enough compensation. They do get an education if they take advantage. The NCAA rules are being loosened up but maybe a bit too late to stave off the inevitable
With a food stipend they no longer have to eat hamburger while the coaching the staff eats steak and lobster. They can fly home on the colleges dime now and “enjoy” other loosening of archaic rules. The NCAA is the first to blink. They are going all out to create the ultimate stopgap rule to delay the inevitable which is a team saying we’re not going to play in the Rose Bowl Game or the Cotton Bowl Game unless we’re cut in on the gravy.
What’s this brainstorm the NCAA is contemplating? In broad terms any kid can transfer anywhere they want, if they are welcome of course, and play immediately with no need to sit out a year.
All that’s required is the school they’re transferring into has the same or equal course they are leaving. An athlete taking basket weaving at Potluck U, after an exceptional season, can transfer to Mortons Steak House and play immediately. Some schools will remain academically honest of course but the bandit schools will take advantage and bring down others with them so they can remain competitive.
Basketball with 13 man rosters will be especially vulnerable. A kid transfers out to start immediately at a school who will then cut a kid to make room. That kid will now transfer to another school who will have to make room and on and on. What about a successful team that now has three kids looking to take advantage of their good season and transfer individually or together. Together is not out of the question. See where this is going if the NCAA goes through with this or some form of it.
Getting Hard To Watch
Football season is back for another run and wearing more than ever more bling. Can football, as we know and appreciate it, hold up under the weight competing networks have piled on the backs of the game’s periphery? Follow the bouncing ball (pun intended).Friday nights were for high school games, almost like a religion in some parts, while Saturdays were looked forward to because it was college football time. Sundays were special because we knew it was time for the best of the best, pro football.
Now it’s becoming something of a blur, watered down almost. The networks have taken advantage of the huge appeal of football and milked it for every edge they can get to capture each other’s viewers. Nothing wrong with that; after all, this is the USA and we have the best business model in the known world and the smartest people to run it.
Or do we? This first week saw the colleges on TV Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The NFL will be on Thursdays, Saturdays, Sundays and Mondays this season as always. Our high schools are holding on in spite of the greediness of the networks.
The NFL has pre-game shows that are redundant at best. Hours of nonsense from an assortment of experts shouting over each other.Of course we don’t have to subject ourselves to it, which I don’t, but that’s my choice. Putting up with challenges and 16 momentum-killing commercial breaks is part of the reason behind the slide in attendance and ratings. Now we have the 15-watt bulbs disrespecting the flag grabbing attention. Add in a few bad calls and inept officials trying to interpret rule changes meant to aid offenses and the whole scene can be likened to a Hollywood special effects dud.
How will the NFL react to their game imploding? It’s not much of a stretch to imagine stadiums full of fans watching through virtual reality glasses. The next logical step will be virtual reality viewing in your living room. How about artificial intelligence calling both offense and defense plays and schemes? Millennials won’t need to adapt since they’re already in that zone, and it’s the Millennials who will eventually take over. Oh, and there will also be some football along with everything else piled on the game. Take care, and pass the Windex my virtual lenses or cloudy.
No Rematch! Thank You!
Better Adapt or Get Out of the Way
Deal me out of the McGregor / Mayweather “fight”. I understand it and understand why it’s even happening. Sadly to me it’s another step in the evolution of sports and sports betting into what should be labeled “spectacle sports”. Spectacle sports don’t rely on the sport itself as the reason to watch or participate. Rather it’s a hybrid of the game unfolding and showbiz.
This fight is not as bizarre as the fight they tried to promote between Muhammad Ali and Wilt Chamberlin or Rubin “Hurricane” Carter” knocking out a horse with one left hook. We know McGregor would destroy and humble (if possible) Mayweather if they fought using the skills that got them both here. I’m convinced the money would be the same, maybe more, if McGregor could use his MMA skills. I’d watch that fight but not this fight with one fighter being handcuffed. Of course Mayweather would NEVER climb into a ring with the real Connor McGregor.
The NFL is another example of the slide. Look what’s being included and even given equal appeal. The League has sanctioned choreographed group end zone dances. It’s evolved from earning a penalty to being encouraged. In spite of attendance being down 8% and falling they haven’t addressed the fatal flaw of players disrespecting the American flag. That’s going to grow into another spectacle. The League is already marketing the Super Bowl half time show like the game is an afterthought. The draft is a two day TV spectacle.
The NFL figures will continue to slide in both TV and attendance. They’ll make up for the lost revenue by going to an 18 game schedule, more advertising (if that’s possible) and expanding to other country’s and continents.
Whoever thought we’d see high schools dropping football programs for lack of kids going out. The newer iGen kids and their predecessors the Millennials are more interested in safe spaces and smartphones than watching or participating in sports. Virtual relationships and virtual entertainment are taking the place once occupied by athletes and athletic events. We aging baby boomers and beyond have to get with it or get outa the way. Relax, it ain’t all bad.
When's the rematch?
Gotcha
Billy Walters, who never harmed anyone as far as I know, was finally cornered by the Feds. This was their fourth or so try at convicting him and it didn’t come via a sports gambling indictment. An FBI agent based out of Las Vegas in the 80s, was obsessed with indicting and getting a conviction on Walters as an illegal bookie. While learning on the job this agent, who by the way spent time grilling me in my Stardust office, managed to get grand juries to look at his inept investigating of Walters but Billy beat every attempt in court simply because he convinced jury’s he was betting not booking.
Dr Ivin Mindlin, a onetime New York orthopedic surgeon, who worked with the NY Giants among his clients, moved to Las Vegas in the 70s. Dr Mindlin gave up his surgical practice to bet sports. However he did do an operation in LV I can attest to since it was on me. It must have been on a good day in baseball for the good doctor because the operation was a success. We became friends, even before the operation. He didn’t charge me a cent nor did Sunrise Hospital.
Dr Mindlin bet with us at Churchill Downs in the 70s & early 80s among his other outs. Dr Mindlin teamed up with Michael Kent a computer genius who worked for Westinghouse in Pittsburgh. Kent had a computer system in those early days that was a winner picking sports. Early 80’s and Billy Walters, a self made successful, wealthy sports bettor with many outs around the country, joins with Mindlin and Kent to form The Computer Group as they came to be called.
The Computer Group was good for us at The Stardust, they helped us win. It was simple despite the tales of uninformed journalists and others who weren’t involved. The Computer bet with us early each morning since we were the first to put up our numbers. Then when our numbers were bet into and moved other books around town and around the country copied our adjusted numbers and began to take action. The only problem for them was the numbers they painted were at their apex and the only action they got was one way.
We at The Dust however got two way action because later we got money on the other side. The rub was some of these games were phony laydowns by the Computer Group because they wanted to take the other side with books in LV and around the country that put up our massaged numbers. They could simply cherry pick them to death. We could win with two way action i.e. juice out while others could lose because they needed to beat their one way action. The Computer Group wanted The Stardust to win. Sweet huh?
I hope Billy gets sent to a minimum security Federal location. The Federal system is generous with doling out good time i.e. months taken off your sentence for good behavior. He could be paroled in a couple years I hope. As I said Billy Walters never harmed anyone. He was always a gentleman and it was an honest trait. Nothing phony about him. He was very, very generous in sharing his winnings with deserving people and causes. He gave many millions to individuals and causes who needed and deserved help.
If you can’t win on appeal Billy I hope you do “good time” except doing time is never really good time.
Where’s It Heading
Yesterday doesn’t mean as much as it used to. Recalling the days once described as yesterday could mean a year ago or two or a decade ago or two. Not any more since technology is developing at warp speed so what held true Tuesday may be obsolete by Wednesday.
The games we wager our money on are not the games of “yesterday” when outcomes were truer to form. The fields and courts are still the same dimensions as always but the rules and styles of play on them have been tinkered with and altered.
Perform enhancing drugs can be disguised. No way are all the super muscled athletes the product of gene pools or hard workouts. The record books should use asterics beside some of the entries regardless of the assurances of the various leagues and governing body’s that their athletes are pure.
Major League Baseball in an effort to add more offense i.e. runs to their game, have created another dead ball live ball controversy. We know the drill, the League just can’t figure out how they are on an pace to destroy the home run record by 400 this season. That’s four hundred but “trust us the ball is the same”.
The NFL has turned their game into a pitch and catch, crowd pleasing (?) extravaganza. Can’t touch a QB and defensive backs can’t use all their skills. Just throw the damn thing and let a receiver catch it. After reaching the end zone the league is now promoting end zone dances. They’ve already announced and started promoting Brittany Spears as the half time show of Super Bowl L1. Nothing wrong with Brittany Spears, she’s awesome, but the football game is becoming the backup act.
The NBA has altered their game the most. The NBA has evolved, purposely I might add, into nothing more than first guy past mid court shoots a three pointer or maybe two passes then a lob into an aircraft carrier who posts up another aircraft carrier then shoots. If he happens to make it (which he’s paid to do) he might grab his jersey, pound his chest and scream. The league loves it and so must the fans and TV viewers.
I predict, in the not too distant future, we’ll be able to don Virtual Reality head sets in our seats at the game and view the action from any angle. That’ll be awesome. Just as awesome would be the ability to join a money pool when purchasing your ticket and receiving a mobile device to bet on the game in progress. That’s a long shot but it’s the natural progression of the modern game and technology.
Talk about technology. eSports has plugged their product into the major sports outlets. eSports has pre game press conferences, they promote how they “train” and the status of their teams heads. They have their own super stars. There are eSports mini stadiums so the fan base, mostly millenials, can mimic the main stream sports experience if our current big time sports don’t appeal to them.
Hold on to your hats boys and girls, it’s changing fast. Some for the best and some not so.
Good Luck With That
The available stats for handicapping baseball just keep coming. They’re getting as silly as most of the prop bets offered in LV sportsbooks. If you’re interested you can find the “tilts” or the angle of break of a particular pitchers slider or his “spin rate” of pitches. Will a batters “launch angle” of his swing help you pick a winner? What about the velocities of balls coming off individual batters.
The infield measurements are uniform. Distance between bases, pitcher’s mound to home plate, height of mound and dirt circle all the same. Batters boxes, home plates, bases all the same.
That’s where it ends. Football fields and basketball courts are uniform. Not so with baseball. Foul ball areas and fences vary from field to field and the configuration of those areas change from venue to venue. No two fields are the same.
It’s easy to get wind velocity and direction as well as the sun and shadows. All this info, no matter how deep you go into stats, will be useless after a few bad calls which we can’t predict or handicap. We know the hitters parks and the under parks. We know the different home plate umpires strike zones but he can still be off a couple pitches and that’s all it takes to switch a winner to a loser. We might have handicapped all the relevant info correctly but how do we make up for bad calls around the bases? Despite all this baseball remains the easiest to beat over a season provided we use good money management.
Sportsbook management has been crying especially about the NFL. Week after week they get their lunch eaten. It’s awful hard to lose on the NFL using good old fashioned bookmaking sense.
Sports handicapping is going the way of flip phones and telephones. I don’t think you’ll see many bettors studying two opponents and all the relevant stats and information available on them. Football and basketball, especially football, are covertly becoming studio games. No need to use your brain or get off the couch, just tune into the never ending pre game shows and expert after expert will break the game down for you. Every network tries to outdo the competition by lining up their very own experts and dazzle their viewers with giddy panel arguments and showmanship.
Next time you see a sports bettor doing his own work in a sportsbook then make a wager on his own opinion and skills buy him a drink. Most wagers now days are decided by provincial pride or a talking head on TV. No need to waste your gray matter when a 15 watt ex player can make the decision for you.
What makes a grown man or woman attach themselves to and live through a bunch of players on a particular team who don’t give a rats behind about them. Wasn’t always like that. In the glory days of sports betting we had two way action till corporate thinking took control of bookmaking. They chased so called wiseguys who bet their own opinions and provided two way action. Now after they chased any chance of buy back i.e. two way action the public lines up, all in sync, and mindlessly bet the same side. You know the routine: dog & under, favorite & over.
Moving Numbers
It's hard to imagine a sportsbook losing on the NFL over a whole season but from the comments coming from sportsbook managers it sounds like they managed to do just that. The Super Bowl was a winner for most sportsbooks but it didn't get them out for the year.
What to do next season or more relevant what not to do. Forget the Las Vegas sportsbook managers concept that they have to beat the player. Let the players alone and they'll beat themselves. Get the best line you can and if you have an opinion put it in your opening number then after that no more "I like team bla, bla" or "it's going up or it's going down" as too many sportsbook managers are quoted. The most successful bookmakers back East where I broke in don't know squat about the teams and don't want to know. 11 is bigger than 10, the game is in your favor.
Move numbers according to your action. It's wise to get to the right number quick then when they begin to take it back move slowly. Example:
They lay 6, 6.5, 7,8, Then they begin taking it back. They take 8 so move slowly like 8, 7.5, 7.
Don't overreact on injuries or rumors after you've dealt the game. I'm not talking about injuries that are built into your opening number but late injuries and rumors. Most teams can overcome an injury or two for a game. Some injured teams will even play at a higher level for a game. If Brady's out for a game they can over come it but not for a whole season. Let the players overreact and you'll pick them up with a blotter.
A successful BM knows it's the same $20 bill you pass back and forth with your players only the bookmaker has it for 20 days a month and the players have it only 10.
3 & 7
I keep hearing how the books are getting beat in the NFL. Time was when that was hard to do. A weekend here or there was a loser for us but certainly not on a regular basis. Proof of that was in the limits we set according to where we were most likely to get hammered. The smallest limits were on college basketball because they were easiest to beat. The NBA was the next level then we raised our limits on baseball quite a bit. Going up the limit ladder we took a bigger bite on college football. Our biggest limits were for the NFL. Why the NFL? We could usually count on picking up the NFL wagers with a blotter.
At The Stardust we made our own numbers and put any opinions we had into our openers. From there it was impersonal . Bookmaking is really simple. Just move your numbers according to your action. Don’t have the mindset that you have to beat the players i.e. when you write a ticket you have to beat that player. Just keep writing tickets and move numbers according to your action. Your limits should have already been set to accommodate your clientele. If you have $10,000 players don’t take $25,000 or more on a single wager. The idea is to get two way action, pay the winners with the losers money and keep the juice for yourself. 11 is bigger than 10.
Thinking you’re a sports guru and your smarts can “beat” the players ain’t gonna stand up. They’ll eat your lunch over time. Don’t move your numbers because the Offshores move theirs. Don’t move on air because a sportsbook up the Strip moved theirs. Think about that last statement. If you move on air without a bet on a certain number you won’t have two way action. Now you really do have to beat the player instead of juicing out. Like I said keep it impersonal and a set of gonads help’s also.
Now we need to get most Las Vegas book managers together and sing a chorus of “But I Might Get Middled”. So what if you book 20 games and one or two fall in the middle. I’ve never, NEVER had a player tell me “I middled you, I’m keeping your money and I’ll never make another bet”. That money will find its way back through the betting windows before the rent is paid.
While we’re still all together lets sing a chorus of “Don’t Move Off Of 3 or 7”. Some of our biggest wins came with moving off, on and over 3 and 7 in the NFL. How else could we get two way action. We’ll either get sided, middled, lose or win it all. 11 is still bigger than 10. And besides it’s the same $20 bill, we just hand it back and forth but the bookmaker has it twenty days a month and the player only has it for ten.
Yes I understand it’s a different game in Las Vegas now. Two way action is harder to achieve but it’s mostly the Las Vegas mindset that says get rid of the wiseguys or at least hide from them. You’ll never get that two way action without the “wisenheimers”.
This column might come across as kind of harsh to LV book managers but it’s meant to be productive.
Who Needs Who IMHO
The heads of the major U.S.A. sports leagues, the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL are all on record with recent comments, some more tepid than others, that indicate a softening of opposition to the future Federal legalization of sports betting. As this potentially huge revenue source edges closer to mainstreaming some productive vetting is in order to prevent or minimize hardwired downsides if not well thought out.
Start with the elephant in the room, the NFL. Without the blessings or at least a non damning attitude from the NFL the whole concept is on rickety footing. Say the NBA, NHL and MLS endorse and sanction wagering on their products and the NFL and MLB do not then it might not get through Congress. If it does pass and the NFL opts out of participation, even just verbally, the whole scheme is tainted i.e. “Could something be wrong" or worse yet “Does the NFL think gambling will affect players performance or heaven forbid game outcomes”. The implications will be widely discussed if the NFL passes (no pun intended) on participation.
The NFL must have no direct dealings with gambling entities. Keep it as the NFL has done very successfully. The NFL knows betting on their games coupled with TV is the driving force behind their huge success. Other sports are on TV also but football is made for TV. The NFL has done a masterful job taking advantage of both sports betting and live games. They would be the first and loudest to squawk if the media and networks quit posting current odds on their games. With a wink they say they’re against betting on games but at the same actively support and promote point spreads.
If sports betting is approved on the Federal level the NFL must resist getting in bed with the new kids in town. The NFL doesn’t need them and the gambling entities don’t need anything new from the NFL either. Their is talk of selling real time data to sports books for in game wagering. The world wide gambling community already has in game wagering. We have more data on the NFL than the NFL has on itself.
The networks will reap a landfall of viewers and advertisers once wagering is approved because viewers could wager real time from home. The NFL can cash in simply by upping their contract demands because of the windfall revenue of the networks. The NFL will be in command. They don’t need to send out data or anything else. Just reverse their professed (wink wink) opposition to wagering and stay away from the peripheral grabbers of low hanging fruit.
The other leagues are not as strong and might be tempted to consider new revenue sources dangled before them. They should also increase their end of the new revenue stream from updated contracts with the networks and shun any direct contact with the wagering. Just remember if you pick up a snake and it bites you, you knew it was a snake before you picked it up.
TV Games
If you're going to watch games on TV don't be overly influenced by the performance of teams on that particular day. You may have caught a team at their very best and never to repeat. Of course the opposite may also be true. They might never stink up the joint like that again. Unless you watch every team every game you're just cherry picking performances and that might influence your decisions. My theory is you have to use the same handicapping input for every team and for every game. Since it's not humanly possible to watch every game on TV then just rely on information that's compiled the same for every team every game. Whether the information you input into your decisions is extensive or not so much just be certain it contains every game situation and every team.
Power ratings and point spreads go on and on cascading over many, many interlocking games. Don't cherry pick a few performances just so you can invent a side.
Don't Laugh Think About It
Most of us aren't affected by limits but there are a reason for limits on your sports wagers. College basketball has the lowest limits followed by the NBA. Next highest is MLB then college football with high limits. It used to be "bet what you want " on the NFL but Las Vegas sportsbooks are getting their lunches eaten this season. That's another story for later.
A theory I've came to accept, but can't and doesn't figure in my handicapping, involves the shape of the ball. Football uses an oblong shaped ball that takes unpredictable bounces that can't be considered in handicapping thus making it difficult to handicapp even using sophisticated algorythyms.
Who can predict a punt dropping dead on the two yard line or rolling back words to the 15 or maybe bouncing into the end zone. It's the shape of the ball. Some NFL teams recognize this and are using rugby type kickers to try and get a predictable bounce.
A player fumbles and the ball bounces into the stomach of a player who happens to be in the way of the balls trajectory. Your player or not, you didn't handicapp that crazy bounce. A fumble might be touched by multiple players as it bounces around. Sure some teams have good take away stats but that's over a season or stretch of games. It might not stand up in the game you have your money on.
Then of course there are missed field goals for and against. The monotonous reviews involving inches, knees, elbows and crazy bounces can make for bad beats or lucky wins. All this makes sense but it's out of our control as far as handicapping a winner. Your bookie doesn't have to worry about it though, he loves football.
Baseballs for the most part don't take those fluke bounces. Stadiums are all different and have their own unique angles, fences, foul teritorys and wind to contend with. At least the ball is round but the thing we can't handicapp is again out of our control. A perfect connection of bat to ball will send the ball in a true path and usually fielded by a player in the proper position. However in baseball a bad swing or tipped ball will send it in crazy place or give it english when it lands. An imperfect connection between bat and ball is impossible to figure in our daily handicapping. Over a length of games it comes into play but not on the next pitch or at bat.
Now we have basketball, the easiest and most accurate to handicapp. Courts are the same dimensions, all baskets are the same hieght and almost all surfaces are the same. No wind or weather to contend with. The ball is perfectly round and never touched by a bat, glove or foot. It's passed from hand to hand and most turnovers are deserved. Even when a basketball comes off the backboard or rim it usually goes where it's supposed to go. We can handicapp turnovers, shooting percentages and rebounds (defensive & offensive) and whatever else we give weight too with a bit of certainty. The home court is most pronounced in basketball of course but we figure that going in. Some teams play better on the road but a good handicapper knows which ones.
All this may explain why our bookie vacations in Miami while we're left behind looking for a fresh BR.
Too Simple
It's that time again when the NCAA fumbles their way to selecting the field for the National Championship Tournament aka March Madness. Since 1981 they have primarily relied on the RPI (rating percentage index) to come up with the field. The resulting brackets have been filled with cupcakes who have no business in the tournament. Worse yet in their wisdom the NCAA Selection Committee leaves out more deserving teams and then insults most of us with twisted rational for their decisions.
This year they're going to try, really, really try to select a better field. How? They're including athletic directors, mathematicians, analysts(???), ESPN gurus, "brain power" is the term they used. Also Jeff Sagarin and his Sagarin Ratings and Ken Pomroy and his ratings. Good luck with that as Pomroy has W VA #3 while the RPI has them #30.
Why not consult the most knowledgeable people available, those souls who rate teams and back them with their money i.e. ask a few of the best handicappers in the nation to pick the best teams out of the 351 Division 1 NCAA teams.
Nah that makes too much sense. They probably don't have degrees or the "brain power" the NCAA geniusis are going to consult this year.
Hypocrisy
Will a pro league take advantage of sports betting if and when our Federal Government legalizes it? The sports betting world as we know it is fast changing. In a few years it will not resemble what we see now. Las Vegas is the world’s high tech sports betting model but what lies ahead could leave Las Vegas behind.
In the tech world I might be considered a luddite but I’ve seen and helped the evolution of Las Vegas sports betting. It’s not close to mature yet IMHO. What lies ahead will make today’s mega race & sportsbooks look like the old store front books I so reverently remember and write about.
If and when the Federal Government legalizes sports betting a few enlightened minds will cash in big time. Imagine stadiums with betting windows not unlike race tracks. What about seats with betting terminals for your in game action. Just deposit money in an account and then try to win it back like now in Las Vegas. Not out of the question when so much money is to be cut up. Politicians, team owners, stadiums and/or big Las Vegas hotel corporations will be fighting over the franchises i.e. licenses. Street bookies will have another out to layoff. It’s mind boggling just trying to get your head around the possibilities.
If the professional leagues drop their hypocrisy they will rule big time. Those stadium betting windows could be theirs but that’s way too much for even me to imagine. The NFL will still hold their noses. The NBA will be first to cash in then MLB will follow. They’re both hinting at recognizing sports betting now.
Who knows what’s going to happen when college athletes start seeking union representation. It’s going to happen. Northwestern University football players were first, others will surely follow one by one. How long till Alabama, Auburn, Ohio St, Michigan, USC, Texas, Notre Dame and maybe other big stadium teams like LSU, Clemson, UCLA, Penn St etc. drop out of the NCAA and form a super grid iron league? The NCAA deserves it, they will have earned it all by their egotistical selves.
National Sports Betting Part 1
State of New York Loses $33,000,000 On Jets Victory Over Dolphins.
That’s a headline we could see some day if sports betting becomes legalized on the Federal level. The Federal Government could be the bookmaker which is 99% against that happening so they will farm it out state by state. Some states will get in on it and some won’t.
The key word here is Government and they’re a tough load to carry. If government (State for Federal) is involved in anything other than taxing the business it’s a huge dog to succeed before a single bet is taken. But if the various governments stay out of the way and let Nevada corporations run it for them, with the same tax structure as Nevada imposes on their race/sportsbooks, it will work.
A Nevada sportsbook pays 6.25% of gross revenue to the State and .25% of winnings to the Federal Government. Those figures are doable and allow for successful sportsbook operations. That’s Nevada and we’re blessed with Regulators who have reached these levels after years of hands on experience.
I can’t imagine tax, tax, spend and spend politicians in other jurisdictions keeping their insatiable hands out of the cookie jar. They’re liable to see the big handle and never consider the win might be just 3.5% or 4% on a good year. They can’t help themselves.
Where are they going to get the personnel to handle this potentially monster handle. Where do they get hundreds of employees who will give them first count of this pile of cash. There are thousands of us out there who know our way around the sports betting business from both sides, betting and booking. Good luck weeding them out.
Now suppose we have honest people in all the proper positions. Who is going to be the Government oddsmaker/handicapper? Every politician who has ever played or went to a football or basketball game is going to be an expert ready to second guess and Monday morning quarterback your decisions and moves. It’ll be unbearable for sportsbook management.
Now to the games themselves. Think you’re going to lay 11 to 10. Probably not. My educated guess is the lines and odds will be so steep they’ll be un betable. Say the Steelers are -6.5 in Las Vegas. In Nebraska’s state run book the line may be lay -7.5 take +5.5 and of course the nice State of Nebraska takes all middles. You might even be asked to lay -120. Forget Las Vegas payouts on parlays, teasers or futures. Ain’t gonna happen.
Other than those minor distractions on us the street bookmakers will be happy with the business sent their way.
National Sports Betting Part 2
Continuing with some productive thoughts. The powers to be mustn't confuse the successful Nevada sports betting model with what lays ahead if the Federal ban is lifted. Whether it's on a National level or State by State they just can't pass a law, start taking sports wagers and spend the anticipated winnings on pet projects. Nevada took decades to reach the point it's now at i.e. business and Government understanding each other and co operating in an atmosphere where both can profit. Can this happen in other jurisdictions? Of course but not likely.
The only way to copy Nevada's successful model is to welcome Nevada's operations in turn key. Let Nevada corporations expand into other jurisdictions, then get out of the way.The wheel has already been invented.
If State or Federal bureaucrats are involved it's a doomed undertaking. Keep them out of the operating end. They can count the beans and collect taxes but keep them the hell out of the operating end. Don't let Government be the banker or headlines and problems depicted in Part 1 are a given.
The heads of the major U.S.A. sports leagues, the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL are all on record with recent comments, some more tepid than others, that indicate a softening of opposition to the future Federal legalization of sports betting. As this potentially huge revenue source edges closer to mainstreaming some productive vetting is in order to prevent or minimize hardwired downsides if not well thought out.
Start with the elephant in the room, the NFL. Without the blessings or at least a non damning attitude from the NFL the whole concept is on rickety footing. Say the NBA, NHL and MLS endorse and sanction wagering on their products and the NFL and MLB do not then it might not get through Congress. If it does pass and the NFL opts out of participation, even just verbally, the whole scheme is tainted i.e. “Could something be wrong" or worse yet “Does the NFL think gambling will affect players performance or heaven forbid game outcomes”. The implications will be widely discussed if the NFL passes (no pun intended) on participation.
The NFL must have no direct dealings with gambling entities. Keep it as the NFL has done very successfully. The NFL knows betting on their games coupled with TV is the driving force behind their huge success. Other sports are on TV also but football is made for TV. The NFL has done a masterful job taking advantage of both sports betting and live games. They would be the first and loudest to squawk if the media and networks quit posting current odds on their games. With a wink they say they’re against betting on games but at the same actively support and promote point spreads.
If sports betting is approved on the Federal level the NFL must resist getting in bed with the new kids in town. The NFL doesn’t need them and the gambling entities don’t need anything new from the NFL either. Their is talk of selling real time data to sports books for in game wagering. The world wide gambling community already has in game wagering. We have more data on the NFL than the NFL has on itself.
The networks will reap a landfall of viewers and advertisers once wagering is approved because viewers could wager real time from home. The NFL can cash in simply by upping their contract demands because of the windfall revenue of the networks. The NFL will be in command. They don’t need to send out data or anything else. Just reverse their professed (wink wink) opposition to wagering and stay away from the peripheral grabbers of low hanging fruit.
The other leagues are not as strong and might be tempted to consider new revenue sources dangled before them. They should also increase their end of the new revenue stream from updated contracts with the networks and shun any direct contact with the wagering. Just remember if you pick up a snake and it bites you, you knew it was a snake before you picked it up.
TV Games
If you're going to watch games on TV don't be overly influenced by the performance of teams on that particular day. You may have caught a team at their very best and never to repeat. Of course the opposite may also be true. They might never stink up the joint like that again. Unless you watch every team every game you're just cherry picking performances and that might influence your decisions. My theory is you have to use the same handicapping input for every team and for every game. Since it's not humanly possible to watch every game on TV then just rely on information that's compiled the same for every team every game. Whether the information you input into your decisions is extensive or not so much just be certain it contains every game situation and every team.
Power ratings and point spreads go on and on cascading over many, many interlocking games. Don't cherry pick a few performances just so you can invent a side.
Don't Laugh Think About It
Most of us aren't affected by limits but there are a reason for limits on your sports wagers. College basketball has the lowest limits followed by the NBA. Next highest is MLB then college football with high limits. It used to be "bet what you want " on the NFL but Las Vegas sportsbooks are getting their lunches eaten this season. That's another story for later.
A theory I've came to accept, but can't and doesn't figure in my handicapping, involves the shape of the ball. Football uses an oblong shaped ball that takes unpredictable bounces that can't be considered in handicapping thus making it difficult to handicapp even using sophisticated algorythyms.
Who can predict a punt dropping dead on the two yard line or rolling back words to the 15 or maybe bouncing into the end zone. It's the shape of the ball. Some NFL teams recognize this and are using rugby type kickers to try and get a predictable bounce.
A player fumbles and the ball bounces into the stomach of a player who happens to be in the way of the balls trajectory. Your player or not, you didn't handicapp that crazy bounce. A fumble might be touched by multiple players as it bounces around. Sure some teams have good take away stats but that's over a season or stretch of games. It might not stand up in the game you have your money on.
Then of course there are missed field goals for and against. The monotonous reviews involving inches, knees, elbows and crazy bounces can make for bad beats or lucky wins. All this makes sense but it's out of our control as far as handicapping a winner. Your bookie doesn't have to worry about it though, he loves football.
Baseballs for the most part don't take those fluke bounces. Stadiums are all different and have their own unique angles, fences, foul teritorys and wind to contend with. At least the ball is round but the thing we can't handicapp is again out of our control. A perfect connection of bat to ball will send the ball in a true path and usually fielded by a player in the proper position. However in baseball a bad swing or tipped ball will send it in crazy place or give it english when it lands. An imperfect connection between bat and ball is impossible to figure in our daily handicapping. Over a length of games it comes into play but not on the next pitch or at bat.
Now we have basketball, the easiest and most accurate to handicapp. Courts are the same dimensions, all baskets are the same hieght and almost all surfaces are the same. No wind or weather to contend with. The ball is perfectly round and never touched by a bat, glove or foot. It's passed from hand to hand and most turnovers are deserved. Even when a basketball comes off the backboard or rim it usually goes where it's supposed to go. We can handicapp turnovers, shooting percentages and rebounds (defensive & offensive) and whatever else we give weight too with a bit of certainty. The home court is most pronounced in basketball of course but we figure that going in. Some teams play better on the road but a good handicapper knows which ones.
All this may explain why our bookie vacations in Miami while we're left behind looking for a fresh BR.
Too Simple
It's that time again when the NCAA fumbles their way to selecting the field for the National Championship Tournament aka March Madness. Since 1981 they have primarily relied on the RPI (rating percentage index) to come up with the field. The resulting brackets have been filled with cupcakes who have no business in the tournament. Worse yet in their wisdom the NCAA Selection Committee leaves out more deserving teams and then insults most of us with twisted rational for their decisions.
This year they're going to try, really, really try to select a better field. How? They're including athletic directors, mathematicians, analysts(???), ESPN gurus, "brain power" is the term they used. Also Jeff Sagarin and his Sagarin Ratings and Ken Pomroy and his ratings. Good luck with that as Pomroy has W VA #3 while the RPI has them #30.
Why not consult the most knowledgeable people available, those souls who rate teams and back them with their money i.e. ask a few of the best handicappers in the nation to pick the best teams out of the 351 Division 1 NCAA teams.
Nah that makes too much sense. They probably don't have degrees or the "brain power" the NCAA geniusis are going to consult this year.
Hypocrisy
Will a pro league take advantage of sports betting if and when our Federal Government legalizes it? The sports betting world as we know it is fast changing. In a few years it will not resemble what we see now. Las Vegas is the world’s high tech sports betting model but what lies ahead could leave Las Vegas behind.
In the tech world I might be considered a luddite but I’ve seen and helped the evolution of Las Vegas sports betting. It’s not close to mature yet IMHO. What lies ahead will make today’s mega race & sportsbooks look like the old store front books I so reverently remember and write about.
If and when the Federal Government legalizes sports betting a few enlightened minds will cash in big time. Imagine stadiums with betting windows not unlike race tracks. What about seats with betting terminals for your in game action. Just deposit money in an account and then try to win it back like now in Las Vegas. Not out of the question when so much money is to be cut up. Politicians, team owners, stadiums and/or big Las Vegas hotel corporations will be fighting over the franchises i.e. licenses. Street bookies will have another out to layoff. It’s mind boggling just trying to get your head around the possibilities.
If the professional leagues drop their hypocrisy they will rule big time. Those stadium betting windows could be theirs but that’s way too much for even me to imagine. The NFL will still hold their noses. The NBA will be first to cash in then MLB will follow. They’re both hinting at recognizing sports betting now.
Who knows what’s going to happen when college athletes start seeking union representation. It’s going to happen. Northwestern University football players were first, others will surely follow one by one. How long till Alabama, Auburn, Ohio St, Michigan, USC, Texas, Notre Dame and maybe other big stadium teams like LSU, Clemson, UCLA, Penn St etc. drop out of the NCAA and form a super grid iron league? The NCAA deserves it, they will have earned it all by their egotistical selves.
National Sports Betting Part 1
State of New York Loses $33,000,000 On Jets Victory Over Dolphins.
That’s a headline we could see some day if sports betting becomes legalized on the Federal level. The Federal Government could be the bookmaker which is 99% against that happening so they will farm it out state by state. Some states will get in on it and some won’t.
The key word here is Government and they’re a tough load to carry. If government (State for Federal) is involved in anything other than taxing the business it’s a huge dog to succeed before a single bet is taken. But if the various governments stay out of the way and let Nevada corporations run it for them, with the same tax structure as Nevada imposes on their race/sportsbooks, it will work.
A Nevada sportsbook pays 6.25% of gross revenue to the State and .25% of winnings to the Federal Government. Those figures are doable and allow for successful sportsbook operations. That’s Nevada and we’re blessed with Regulators who have reached these levels after years of hands on experience.
I can’t imagine tax, tax, spend and spend politicians in other jurisdictions keeping their insatiable hands out of the cookie jar. They’re liable to see the big handle and never consider the win might be just 3.5% or 4% on a good year. They can’t help themselves.
Where are they going to get the personnel to handle this potentially monster handle. Where do they get hundreds of employees who will give them first count of this pile of cash. There are thousands of us out there who know our way around the sports betting business from both sides, betting and booking. Good luck weeding them out.
Now suppose we have honest people in all the proper positions. Who is going to be the Government oddsmaker/handicapper? Every politician who has ever played or went to a football or basketball game is going to be an expert ready to second guess and Monday morning quarterback your decisions and moves. It’ll be unbearable for sportsbook management.
Now to the games themselves. Think you’re going to lay 11 to 10. Probably not. My educated guess is the lines and odds will be so steep they’ll be un betable. Say the Steelers are -6.5 in Las Vegas. In Nebraska’s state run book the line may be lay -7.5 take +5.5 and of course the nice State of Nebraska takes all middles. You might even be asked to lay -120. Forget Las Vegas payouts on parlays, teasers or futures. Ain’t gonna happen.
Other than those minor distractions on us the street bookmakers will be happy with the business sent their way.
National Sports Betting Part 2
Continuing with some productive thoughts. The powers to be mustn't confuse the successful Nevada sports betting model with what lays ahead if the Federal ban is lifted. Whether it's on a National level or State by State they just can't pass a law, start taking sports wagers and spend the anticipated winnings on pet projects. Nevada took decades to reach the point it's now at i.e. business and Government understanding each other and co operating in an atmosphere where both can profit. Can this happen in other jurisdictions? Of course but not likely.
The only way to copy Nevada's successful model is to welcome Nevada's operations in turn key. Let Nevada corporations expand into other jurisdictions, then get out of the way.The wheel has already been invented.
If State or Federal bureaucrats are involved it's a doomed undertaking. Keep them out of the operating end. They can count the beans and collect taxes but keep them the hell out of the operating end. Don't let Government be the banker or headlines and problems depicted in Part 1 are a given.
Raiders To Las Vegas?
But I have to bring up a couple points that are not exactly in line with the happy propaganda that the beneficiaries of an acceptance of the Raiders franchise are putting out. First the positive. If any city has the brain power to make this work it's Las Vegas. I've witnessed first hand and watched with awe the transformation from a gambling based attraction to our city to an entertainment draw. Gambling is now almost an after thought brought on by the corporate take over from most of our past individual owners. Dinning, showrooms, high end nightclubs and shopping are the draw. From middle America to the Worlds wealthiest, they can all be catered to and satisfied in Las Vegas.
If they save 50,000 seats for visitors, out of a 65,000 proposed capacity, and all 50,000 are sold we'll then have 42.8 million visitors instead of 42.3. We'll also get added exposure around the country which is another party line selling point.get. Could we use another 500,000 visitors brought here for 10 home games. Sure but that's with only 15,000 season tickets available for the home folks whose bankrolls will be brutalized from the parking lot to the beer stand. That's after they support $750million in taxpayer funds and purchase an overpriced ticket.
24 out of 32 NFL owners must vote to approve this move or it can't go forward. Those owners have to change the NFL blackout policy to appease the hotel/casinos who have a fortune invested in TV generated sportsbooks or they could make a carve out for Raiders owner Mark Davis which they almost certainly won't. TV is the NFL along with gambling. The owners must figure out what compromises to make and what are the consequences of a scandal be it real or made up by a sensationalist media. How are they going to lock down a hotel where their prized players are staying. They'll be targets for the finer temptations Las Vegas has to offer. It goes without saying players won't be allowed to be seen in the casino or sportsbook.
Unless the Las Vegas Raiders change their culture and following from the previous Oakland Raiders it will be a disaster. The NBA had an All-Star game in Las Vegas and it resulted in over 400 arrests.I can imagine hotel high rollers being harassed or worse by old time Raider fans. Of course Las Vegas is a pristine city and it may rub off on those fans if they travel with their beloved Oakland Raiders.
The Rams and Chargers will be close by in Inglewood, CA. The Southern California crowd can stay home and watch the NFL in a privately financed stadium and an accompanying massive complex that will dwarf the Las Vegas project. Tourists can now choose to go to Los Angeles and watch UCLA or USC on Saturday then either the Rams or Chargers on Sunday. Sure beats the Raiders and UNLV.
Las Vegas Raiders Home Games
Picture this: The Las Vegas Raiders are at home vs whoever. Or maybe the Super Bowl is being played in the partially tax funded Las Vegas Stadium. In either event the networks, advertisers and assorted NFL bottom feeders are at a fever pitch. It’s a promoters dream.
At the same time and for their own self serving purposes the Hotels are also riding the crest of this monumental event. It’s tailor made for the sportsbooks they house. Thousands of team followers are in town and most will stop by and support their hero’s with a wager be it a token show of support or a six figure lay down. In fact the whole city is packed with Super Bowl fans going to the game. Even more will fill the sportsbooks and their money drawers.
It’s all set up, the NFL is giddy and all that’s left is to play the game and look at the ratings. At the same time and keeping pace is the Las Vegas gaming brain trust who are way ahead of the NFL. They have been promoting remote wagering i.e. load up your account, head for the game and wager away on the in game or props from your seat the stadium.
We have 65,000 out of the 70,000 in attendance with a wager if the hotels promotions are effective which they will be. The remote wagering crowd will be busy on most situations unfolding on the field. Will they punt or go for it on fourth down? Will the next play be a pass or run? Announcers now have extra work explaining boos in situations that don’t usually warrant them. Why the boos and cheers when the coin flip lands heads? Why all the boos when Rothlisberger throws his third TD pass? Why all the boos when The Steelers are ahead by eleven with three seconds left and take a knee on the two yard line?
So far the NFL has been running around the shower without getting wet but now they’ll have to accept the universal fact that gambling on their games is a huge part of it’s success. Kicking and screaming they’ll have to accept it if The Las Vegas Raiders have anything to say about it.
Maybe worse yet for NFL franchise owners is keeping their million dollar employees in their hotel rooms. You can bet your house & lot in Georgia that some NFL players, who find themselves in Las Vegas, won’t/can’t resist the charms of Las Vegas. Will they all stay away from the tables and sportsbooks, probably not. Will they all avoid the other temptations , probably not.
We all can’t spout the party line, someone has to bring up potential situations in a productive manner.
Garbage In Garbage Out
One drawback or advancement, depending on your vested interest in handicapping, is the remarkable advancement of big data. In pre computer handicapping and line making we didn’t have this unending paper trail to digest. So much of today’s projections, touts and fodder for announcers and journalists coming out of this data is the sports world’s version of junk science. It’s crap.
The deeper we dig the more we find to analyze, thus the better our projections or the more we get thrown off by that junk science. A case in point that is still in its infancy, at least as far as we the public are concerned, is how much NFL officiating is biased to whatever/whoever. We see with our own eyes, every NFL game, calls and non-calls that infuriate us or we rejoice in. Good cop/bad cop you get the idea.
There’s a study out by a very reputable statistical group on this very subject. The company is simply named 538. They do studies on all sorts of data and statistics and found the following in a preliminary study involving every play from the 2010 through the 2014 NFL seasons:
* Pass interference was called more often between the 32 yard lines on the side of the field closest to where the offensive team benches, players and coaches were located.
* Conversely offensive holding on running plays was called more often between the 32 yard lines closest to the team benches of the team on defense. As the ball moved closer to the end zone this no longer held up in fact sometimes it reversed. The logical conclusion to this uncensored research is the players and coaches are restricted from going past the 32 yard lines, they must stay between them. Makes preliminary sense.
Now let’s play devil’s advocate. The NFL home office wouldn’t admit to anything that casts a negative light on their pristine sport, unless of course they’re being sued for concussions and on the hook for multi millions. What if a team or teams are also aware of these stats and adjust their play calling accordingly. Just saying.
* Another outcome of this report is the home field crowd influences calls less than the 32 yard line scenario. Could be but I’m not endorsing this or any part of this study till it’s been vetted by others with just as much data and coming from different positions.
What raises a red flag is what we all know as fact. The closer to the end zone the smaller the field the defense has to defend and they’re more apt to play with greater intensity.
Sorry, I know it’s hard enough to pick a winner without more wrenches thrown in the machinery.
But I have to bring up a couple points that are not exactly in line with the happy propaganda that the beneficiaries of an acceptance of the Raiders franchise are putting out. First the positive. If any city has the brain power to make this work it's Las Vegas. I've witnessed first hand and watched with awe the transformation from a gambling based attraction to our city to an entertainment draw. Gambling is now almost an after thought brought on by the corporate take over from most of our past individual owners. Dinning, showrooms, high end nightclubs and shopping are the draw. From middle America to the Worlds wealthiest, they can all be catered to and satisfied in Las Vegas.
If they save 50,000 seats for visitors, out of a 65,000 proposed capacity, and all 50,000 are sold we'll then have 42.8 million visitors instead of 42.3. We'll also get added exposure around the country which is another party line selling point.get. Could we use another 500,000 visitors brought here for 10 home games. Sure but that's with only 15,000 season tickets available for the home folks whose bankrolls will be brutalized from the parking lot to the beer stand. That's after they support $750million in taxpayer funds and purchase an overpriced ticket.
24 out of 32 NFL owners must vote to approve this move or it can't go forward. Those owners have to change the NFL blackout policy to appease the hotel/casinos who have a fortune invested in TV generated sportsbooks or they could make a carve out for Raiders owner Mark Davis which they almost certainly won't. TV is the NFL along with gambling. The owners must figure out what compromises to make and what are the consequences of a scandal be it real or made up by a sensationalist media. How are they going to lock down a hotel where their prized players are staying. They'll be targets for the finer temptations Las Vegas has to offer. It goes without saying players won't be allowed to be seen in the casino or sportsbook.
Unless the Las Vegas Raiders change their culture and following from the previous Oakland Raiders it will be a disaster. The NBA had an All-Star game in Las Vegas and it resulted in over 400 arrests.I can imagine hotel high rollers being harassed or worse by old time Raider fans. Of course Las Vegas is a pristine city and it may rub off on those fans if they travel with their beloved Oakland Raiders.
The Rams and Chargers will be close by in Inglewood, CA. The Southern California crowd can stay home and watch the NFL in a privately financed stadium and an accompanying massive complex that will dwarf the Las Vegas project. Tourists can now choose to go to Los Angeles and watch UCLA or USC on Saturday then either the Rams or Chargers on Sunday. Sure beats the Raiders and UNLV.
Las Vegas Raiders Home Games
Picture this: The Las Vegas Raiders are at home vs whoever. Or maybe the Super Bowl is being played in the partially tax funded Las Vegas Stadium. In either event the networks, advertisers and assorted NFL bottom feeders are at a fever pitch. It’s a promoters dream.
At the same time and for their own self serving purposes the Hotels are also riding the crest of this monumental event. It’s tailor made for the sportsbooks they house. Thousands of team followers are in town and most will stop by and support their hero’s with a wager be it a token show of support or a six figure lay down. In fact the whole city is packed with Super Bowl fans going to the game. Even more will fill the sportsbooks and their money drawers.
It’s all set up, the NFL is giddy and all that’s left is to play the game and look at the ratings. At the same time and keeping pace is the Las Vegas gaming brain trust who are way ahead of the NFL. They have been promoting remote wagering i.e. load up your account, head for the game and wager away on the in game or props from your seat the stadium.
We have 65,000 out of the 70,000 in attendance with a wager if the hotels promotions are effective which they will be. The remote wagering crowd will be busy on most situations unfolding on the field. Will they punt or go for it on fourth down? Will the next play be a pass or run? Announcers now have extra work explaining boos in situations that don’t usually warrant them. Why the boos and cheers when the coin flip lands heads? Why all the boos when Rothlisberger throws his third TD pass? Why all the boos when The Steelers are ahead by eleven with three seconds left and take a knee on the two yard line?
So far the NFL has been running around the shower without getting wet but now they’ll have to accept the universal fact that gambling on their games is a huge part of it’s success. Kicking and screaming they’ll have to accept it if The Las Vegas Raiders have anything to say about it.
Maybe worse yet for NFL franchise owners is keeping their million dollar employees in their hotel rooms. You can bet your house & lot in Georgia that some NFL players, who find themselves in Las Vegas, won’t/can’t resist the charms of Las Vegas. Will they all stay away from the tables and sportsbooks, probably not. Will they all avoid the other temptations , probably not.
We all can’t spout the party line, someone has to bring up potential situations in a productive manner.
Garbage In Garbage Out
One drawback or advancement, depending on your vested interest in handicapping, is the remarkable advancement of big data. In pre computer handicapping and line making we didn’t have this unending paper trail to digest. So much of today’s projections, touts and fodder for announcers and journalists coming out of this data is the sports world’s version of junk science. It’s crap.
The deeper we dig the more we find to analyze, thus the better our projections or the more we get thrown off by that junk science. A case in point that is still in its infancy, at least as far as we the public are concerned, is how much NFL officiating is biased to whatever/whoever. We see with our own eyes, every NFL game, calls and non-calls that infuriate us or we rejoice in. Good cop/bad cop you get the idea.
There’s a study out by a very reputable statistical group on this very subject. The company is simply named 538. They do studies on all sorts of data and statistics and found the following in a preliminary study involving every play from the 2010 through the 2014 NFL seasons:
* Pass interference was called more often between the 32 yard lines on the side of the field closest to where the offensive team benches, players and coaches were located.
* Conversely offensive holding on running plays was called more often between the 32 yard lines closest to the team benches of the team on defense. As the ball moved closer to the end zone this no longer held up in fact sometimes it reversed. The logical conclusion to this uncensored research is the players and coaches are restricted from going past the 32 yard lines, they must stay between them. Makes preliminary sense.
Now let’s play devil’s advocate. The NFL home office wouldn’t admit to anything that casts a negative light on their pristine sport, unless of course they’re being sued for concussions and on the hook for multi millions. What if a team or teams are also aware of these stats and adjust their play calling accordingly. Just saying.
* Another outcome of this report is the home field crowd influences calls less than the 32 yard line scenario. Could be but I’m not endorsing this or any part of this study till it’s been vetted by others with just as much data and coming from different positions.
What raises a red flag is what we all know as fact. The closer to the end zone the smaller the field the defense has to defend and they’re more apt to play with greater intensity.
Sorry, I know it’s hard enough to pick a winner without more wrenches thrown in the machinery.
